OPEC+: Saudi Arabia increases oil production by more than two million barrels per day... and Russia declines

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The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said on Tuesday that the OPEC+ alliance recorded a sharp rise in production during September, driven by an increase in Saudi Arabia’s production despite ongoing disruptions in shipments through the Strait of Hormuz resulting from the Iran war.

The organization stated in a monthly report that the OPEC+ alliance, which includes OPEC countries and their allies such as Russia, pumped 39.07 million barrels per day on average during September, an increase of nearly 900 thousand barrels per day over August.

The IMF raises global economic growth expectations to 3.1% in 2026

The OPEC figures, which are based on secondary sources, add to the indicators that have emerged in the past few weeks of a recovery in oil supplies from the Gulf states, although shipments are still below the levels they were before the outbreak of the Iran war at the end of February.

State company Saudi Aramco increased oil loadings from export terminals in the Gulf in September after an attack on the East-West pipeline disrupted its shipments through the Red Sea.

The OPEC report showed that Saudi Arabia, the largest producer in the organization, informed it that it pumped 8.372 million barrels per day of crude in September, an increase of more than two million barrels per day compared to August.

In contrast, the report stated that Russia's oil production fell by 38,000 barrels per day last month. Russia's production is declining in light of the Ukrainian strikes on its energy infrastructure, including oil refineries.

OPEC also lowered its forecast for oil demand growth in 2026 for the sixth month in a row, and raised its forecast for next year, noting the world's need to rebuild stocks that were depleted by the Iran war.

OPEC said that global demand for oil is expected to rise by 2.55 million barrels per day next year to 108.3 million barrels per day on average. The organization expects growth of 180,000 barrels per day in 2026.

OPEC added: “This is assuming that demand for oil in 2026 will actually decline as currently expected, and that it will increase again next year due to the need to replenish oil stocks.”

Governments and energy companies have withdrawn oil from stocks to relieve pressure on the global oil market, which is facing unprecedented supply disruptions this year due to the wars in the Middle East and Ukraine.