Israeli Elections: Netanyahu Between Winter and Ben Gvir's Conditions

Author: Mustafa Ibrahim

Israeli media discussed the elections, the party map, and the uncertainty regarding their results, alongside the positions of the right, center, and remnants of the Zionist left regarding the disqualification of Arab lists and Sami Abu Shahada. The positions of the parties and their leaders varied for ideological, political, and sometimes personal reasons, as the leaders of the four parties in the change camp formulated a joint position and supported the disqualification of Abu Shahada due to the article he published on October 8, 2023.

Yair Golan, head of the "Democrats" party, justified his support for the disqualification by stating that he could not remain objective, while he opposed the disqualification of the "Unified" party, a position that can also be read in the context of political calculations for after the war.

On the other hand, Avigdor Lieberman, head of the "Yisrael Beiteinu" party, was the only one among them who supported the disqualification of the "Unified" party, alongside the disqualification of Abu Shahada and the Joint List, and he is committed to not relying on the Unified List in any way in forming the government, despite its role in the previous change government. Lieberman has another personal reason in his relationship with Mansour Abbas; the man who attracted him to his party, Yoav Sigalovich, a retired police officer, was among those who investigated Lieberman in one of the cases and saw at the time that there was a basis of evidence to bring him to trial and recommended that the public prosecution do so. Lieberman announced that if Sigalovich were asked to be the "61st finger," or if he were appointed minister in the government by the Unified List, he would not agree to that.

In an attempt to strengthen the cohesion of the camp, Eizenkot, Golan, Bennett, Lapid, and Lieberman met and agreed not to attack each other until the government is formed, and to work on expanding the voter base and achieving a majority. However, the understanding does not eliminate the disagreement over the leadership of the next government; Eizenkot insists that the largest party should form the government, while Lieberman and Bennett are cautious about this discourse for fear that it will lead to votes from their parties transferring to Eizenkot or Likud.

The electoral understanding does not eliminate the boundaries of partnership that Eizenkot sets for the upcoming government. He announced that the United List "Ra'am" will not be part of a government under his leadership, specifying four conditions for any party wishing to participate in the coalition: recognition of Israel as a Jewish and democratic state, commitment to the values of the Declaration of Independence, support for mandatory military service, and recognition of Hamas as a terrorist organization that must be eliminated. According to Eizenkot, currently no Arab or Haredi party meets these conditions. Thus, the anti-Netanyahu camp is being unified electorally, but within clear limits for the political partnership that the upcoming coalition can be based on.

In contrast, Eizenkot is trying to exploit the weaknesses within Netanyahu's camp; according to estimates conveyed by Israeli media, Likud is polling between 18 and 20 seats in several surveys, while smaller lists like Handel-Zilicha and "Amcha Israel" led by Ofir Winter face the risk of not surpassing the electoral threshold, and the fall of these lists could lead to wasted votes, most of which come from the right-wing camp, altering the parliamentary calculations.

However, Winter remains a source of concern within Netanyahu's camp; securing a large number of seats may give him greater bargaining power in forming the coalition, especially if he demands the defense portfolio. The "Amcha Israel" party previously secured six seats in earlier polls, while the latest Maariv survey showed a decline to four, reflecting the volatility of the party's electoral strength at this stage.

Netanyahu's problems do not stop with Winter, as the relationship with the Haredi parties has become more complicated, especially with the ongoing conscription crisis. Within these parties, there are criticisms of Netanyahu, some due to his failure to fulfill his commitments regarding the exemption law for Haredim from conscription, reflecting the difficulty of maintaining complete cohesion within the right-wing camp as it was before.

Last week, Netanyahu summoned Smotrich and Ben Gvir to his office in the Kirya, amid fears of the camp's disintegration. After that, Ben Gvir announced that he would demand the defense portfolio in the next government, along with the justice portfolio for Tali Gottlieb, and the Likud's response was that defense and justice are essential portfolios that should remain with the ruling party. Ben Gvir's proposal of these conditions reveals a shift in the balance of power within Netanyahu's camp; the parties and figures he needs seem more independent in their demands and more willing to raise the ceiling of their conditions.

Here lies the fundamental paradox in this election: Netanyahu does not face a unified camp on the opposing side, but he also faces a right-wing camp that no longer operates with the same discipline it had in previous elections; Vinter raises an electoral and coalition problem, Ben Gvir raises the bar of his demands, and the Haredim appear less willing to grant Netanyahu an open mandate. Therefore, Netanyahu's electoral battle is not only about regaining seats from the change camp, but also about his ability to keep the camp he has led for years cohesive until election day and beyond.