Elections: A Life or Death Battle for Netanyahu

Author

Nihad Abu Ghosh

On the eve of the Israeli elections scheduled for October 27 of this month, Benjamin Netanyahu has an election campaign that he does not tire of repeating, and he does not miss any opportunity to list his achievements in the wars that have not stopped over the past three years: We killed Sinwar and Haniya, we destroyed Gaza, and we killed Nasrallah and Khamenei, we controlled vast areas in southern Lebanon and most of the Gaza Strip, and we established security zones and buffer lines in Syria, Lebanon, and Gaza. Israel is stronger than ever, and its planes move freely in the skies of the Middle East.

Despite all these achievements, Netanyahu has not succeeded in achieving a single central goal: he has not erased the shame of the greatest failure in Israel's history, which is the failure of October 7, where the majority of the Israeli public still holds him responsible for the greatest failure due to the priorities set by his government and his ignoring of warnings that came to him from various local and regional parties. In addition to causing unprecedented isolation for Israel on the international stage, his policies have created a deep rift in Israeli society due to his favoritism towards ultra-Orthodox and extremist settlers. Criticism of Netanyahu intensifies from his opponents because he has dismissed and removed all officials responsible for leading the army and security agencies, changing the Minister of Defense, the Chief of Staff, and the leaders of the intelligence agencies, the Shin Bet, and the Mossad, while he clings to his position, refusing any accountability or investigation committee, aware that losing power could lead him to prison on corruption charges.

Thus, the upcoming election battle appears to be a matter of life or death for Netanyahu, who always enjoys a considerable level of support from the Israeli Jewish community, a percentage that hovers around 40%, rising or falling depending on events. However, it indicates a deep and sharp division within Israeli society. This audience, attached to Netanyahu, supports him despite all the corruption charges associated with him, and an absolute autocratic style of governance that tends to marginalize institutions, relying on loyalists and fanatical supporters from the settler community and religious Zionists, as well as the ultra-Orthodox (Haredim). In general, this includes the lower-class Jewish Easterners and residents of poor neighborhoods and what are called "development towns." All these factions face a broad front that includes parties like (Yesh Atid) led by Gadi Eisenkot, the (Yahad) bloc led by the duo Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, the (Yisrael Beiteinu) party led by Avigdor Lieberman, and the left-wing Zionist Democratic Party led by Yair Golan, without counting the two Arab lists that neither of the Zionist camps wants to rely on. The sentiment of these forces is that any option is acceptable to them except for Netanyahu, who has destroyed the Israeli political system and corrupted political life.

One of the biggest sins attributed to Netanyahu is causing a deep rift with American Jews, diminishing Israel's popularity and status among the broad American public, especially among the Democratic Party's base and the younger generation.

Estimates indicate that Netanyahu will not concede defeat and may resort to any pretext or trick to cancel or postpone the elections if he realizes that his defeat is inevitable. Former Prime Minister Ehud Barak described Netanyahu's situation as acting like a "wounded beast" and may resort to any action to cancel the elections, including an artificial escalation on one of the open fronts, such as Iran, Lebanon, Gaza, the West Bank, and Syria, declaring war and postponing the elections, thereby scattering all the cards and mixing them with the existing political alignments.

One of Netanyahu's options was to disqualify the Arab lists, and a proposal to that effect passed before the parliamentary election committee, but the Supreme Court overturned the decision. However, this card has not been completely withdrawn from Netanyahu's hands, who can use alternative tools to limit the influence of Arabs, including using Ben Gvir's police and settler and fascist militias to intimidate and terrorize Arabs, preventing them from voting, and causing serious problems at polling stations.

One of the options that Netanyahu may resort to is challenging the election results if they are not in his favor, similar to what President Trump did when he was defeated by Joe Biden, when his supporters stormed the Capitol and took control of it for several hours before then-Vice President Mike Pence resolved the dispute. However, Netanyahu will not be satisfied with relying on legal tools; he may also create problems with the election committees and with his opponents. No matter what he does, he will enjoy the support of the right-wing public eager to impose its control over state institutions.

Public opinion polls have indicated for several years a clear advantage for Netanyahu's opponents over his supporters, although the polls vary sharply. Polls from Channel 14 and i24 give Netanyahu's camp a decisive lead over his opponents, but other polls, most notably the weekly poll from Maariv and the polls from Channels 12 and 13, show a clear preference for Netanyahu's opponents. However, it is important to point out two significant observations regarding the polls:

1. The polls give the right and far-right forces a lower percentage than they actually receive for several reasons, including that some respondents feel embarrassed to express their support for extremist right-wing forces, while they may actually do so during the secret ballot. Additionally, the turnout rate is much higher among religious and extremist forces than among secular and liberal forces. Those who belong to the latter groups may support one team but prefer another aspect of their lives and refrain from going to vote, while religious and fascist forces see elections as a holy war that must be fought until the last vote.

2. Recently, indicators have begun to emerge suggesting a situation closer to a tie between the two camps, a situation that prevents either from reaching the threshold of 61 seats, especially with about 12 seats for the Arab lists. What has reinforced this state of equality is that two far-right parties were fluctuating around the electoral threshold, but recent polls show they have surpassed the threshold (3.25%). These are the religious Zionist party led by Bezalel Smotrich, united with the 'Zehut' party, and the new party 'Your People Israel' led by General Ofer Winter, whose electoral program focuses on the expulsion of Palestinians from Gaza as a top priority. The success of these two parties in surpassing the electoral threshold means the possibility of a tie between the two camps and the potential for a slight advance in favor of Netanyahu.

There are two serious possibilities: either the upcoming elections will not be decisive, and no party or coalition will be able to form a government without relying on an Arab list. In this case, Israel will enter a political crisis similar to that experienced between 2019 and 2021 when five electoral rounds took place in less than two years, and Netanyahu remains in his position as the head of a caretaker government.

New developments may change the political landscape between one election round and another, leading to the dissolution of some forces and the emergence of new ones. These are possibilities in favor of Netanyahu because his main opponent, the Yesh Atid party, is not an institutional party with established structures and foundations, but rather an emergency electoral formation that could dissolve as quickly as it was formed, especially since it does not have any substantial alternatives to Netanyahu's policies, neither regarding the occupation and the Palestinians nor on the internal front, except for its slogans regarding the issue of conscription.

The other option is to form a national unity government between the two main parties, Likud and Yesh Atid, along with some other forces, a coalition that excludes the Arab lists and may exclude figures like Ben Gvir and Smotrich. This option recalls Netanyahu's maneuvers when he formed a rotation government with Benny Gantz, who was heading the Blue and White party. Netanyahu held the premiership for more than a year and refused to carry out the rotation, leading to the dissolution of the government in June 2021.