Personal diplomacy and strategic calculations

Russian President Vladimir Putin enjoys great admiration and praise from his American counterpart, Donald Trump. This was clearly evident during Trump's first term, as he seemed, during the Helsinki summit, to give the Russian side's denial more importance than the findings reached by US intelligence agencies regarding "Moscow's interference in the 2016 elections." During his second term, Trump continued to deal with Russia with interest and affection, despite the continuation of the Russian war against Ukraine and the enormous human cost of this war and the accompanying Russian control over Ukrainian lands. Trump repeated his statement that Moscow would not have launched the war if he himself had been president of the United States in February 2022, and he also promised to end the war quickly after his return to the White House in 2025. But that did not happen, and the conflict continued to affect energy markets, increasing pressure on consumers. As the ongoing war with Iran entered its ninth month, energy costs rose further, and became a source of political concern for Trump. He seems determined to find ways to reduce them, fearing that high prices will weaken his party's position in the midterm elections scheduled for next November. Therefore, he urged Ukraine to stop its active drone campaign against Russia's energy infrastructure, in particular oil refining facilities. His administration also announced a temporary easing of sanctions imposed on Russian diesel exports, arguing that providing additional supplies could help reduce prices on global markets. The decision sparked sharp criticism, as it was taken without consulting Ukraine or European allies, as well asMembers of Trump's own party have questioned it, especially in light of Congress' recent move toward tightening sanctions on Russian energy exports. Critics doubt that easing restrictions will significantly lower prices in the short term, let alone in time to influence voters before the midterm elections. But their deeper objection relates to strategy, as allowing Russia to achieve more revenues from energy exports may provide it with additional resources to finance its war against Ukraine. Trump also angered some Republicans and European leaders by inviting Russia to attend the G20 summit scheduled for this year, which the United States is hosting at one of Trump’s resorts in Florida. It is still unclear whether the Russian president will accept the invitation. But its mere directness raised questions about the message that Washington is sending to a country that is still fighting a major war in Europe, and to allies that have borne a large part of the consequences of that war. So why does Trump seem so comfortable in dealing with a country that many governments and observers believe is responsible for the ongoing war in part of the continent? There are several possible explanations, the first of which is that Trump attaches particular importance to countries that display their power. The second is that Trump deals with international relations with the logic of deals and mutual interests, and he implicitly believes that the United States must deal with strong leaders, because they control lands, resources, and strategic decisions that Washington cannot ignore. His administration also paid clear attention to consolidating American hegemony in the Western Hemisphere, which raisesQuestions about the extent of priority he gives to maintaining American alliances in Europe, Asia, and the Middle East. These reasons may explain part of Trump’s approach, but they do not resolve the issue. Historians will study his relationship with Putin long after he leaves office in 2029, trying to balance personal diplomacy with strategic calculations and the practical results of his policies. For now, his Russia policy remains one of the most controversial aspects of his presidency, with the litmus test being whether efforts for short-term economic or diplomatic gain will weaken Ukraine's position and undermine the confidence of U.S. allies in it.