Analysis: Democrats Attracting Large Numbers of Republican Voters Ahead of the 2026 Elections.. What Do the Polls Reveal?

Analysis by Aaron Blake from the Horizon News Network. - President Donald Trump has never recorded such low numbers in polls among his electoral base as he has ahead of the 2026 midterm elections. An increasing number of polls indicate that a significant portion of that base is preparing to change its loyalty and vote for the Democrats.

Polls conducted by the "New York Times" and Siena College, published over the weekend, showed that between 9% and 16% of potential Republican voters expressed a preference for the Democratic candidate in five key states: Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Ohio, and Texas. These are not the only polls revealing a notable phenomenon of voters switching from one party to another, especially in the Midwest.

According to a review by the Horizon News Network of polling results in each state, Democratic candidates are leading by double digits among Republican voters in four major Senate races, and they are ahead by an average of at least 9 points in seven of the top ten electoral races. It also appears that Democratic candidates are on track to attract a particularly large percentage of Republican voters who do not identify with Trump's "Make America Great Again" (MAGA) movement, with this percentage often reaching around a quarter of those voters.

These data come with an important note: recent presidential election polls have underestimated the level of support for the Republican Party. There are indications that this underestimation may have resulted from the polls' success in reaching the correct total number of Republicans, but they did not reach enough of the party's most enthusiastic supporters, and thus the strongest Trump supporters.

If this trend continues this year, it is likely that Republican-identified voters will show greater support for the party's candidates than current polls indicate. However, it is worth noting that polls in the previous midterm elections, in 2022, did not show this pattern.

One of the most striking figures in the new "New York Times" and "Siena" polls came from Kansas, which has recently emerged as an unexpected competitive battleground. The poll showed Democratic candidate Adam Hamilton and Republican Senator Roger Marshall tied at 45% each among likely voters, while the Libertarian candidate received 5%.

So, how did Hamilton manage to make the competition so close in the Republican-leaning state of Kansas, where Trump won by a 16-point margin in 2024? This pastor succeeded in attracting 16% of registered Republican voters and 10% of those who identify as Republicans.

In contrast, Marshall received only 2% to 3% from each category of Democrats, according to the poll. However, Hamilton is not the only Democratic candidate achieving double-digit percentages, that is, 10% or more, among Republican voters.

The "Times-Siena" poll showed that the Democratic candidate in Iowa, Josh Torik, received 12% support from registered Republicans and 5% from those who identify as Republicans. This state representative also achieved double-digit percentages among those who identify as Republicans in recent polls conducted by Marist College (13%) and Fox News (10%).

In Alaska, former Democratic Representative Mary Peltola received 13% support from registered Republicans and 9% from those who identify as Republicans in the "Times-Siena" poll. In Georgia, Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff received 10% support from those who identify as Republicans in the latest high-quality poll conducted by Fox News in late June.

Other Democratic figures achieved slightly lower percentages, but they remain significant numbers. The average support of Republican voters for Democratic candidates in North Carolina (Roy Cooper), Ohio (Sherrod Brown), and Texas (James Talarico) reached 9% in recent high-quality polls, according to a review by the Horizon News Network.

Among other Democrats, the average support for Representative Chris Pappas from New Hampshire was 5%, former Maine Senate President Troy Jackson was 4%, and Abdul Sayed from Michigan was 3%. So far, the Democratic Party has not succeeded in matching the larger advantages seen in national-level polls.

The so-called "generic ballot" shows that Democrats receive an average of about 4% support from Republican voters in recent high-quality polls when participants are asked to choose between an unnamed Republican candidate and an unnamed Democratic candidate. However, these numbers recall some of the results Democrats achieved in the 2018 midterm elections, which saw strong overall performance from Democrats.

Exit polls at that time showed that Democrats received double-digit percentages of Republican voter support in several states, including West Virginia (17%), Arizona (12%), Ohio (11%), Pennsylvania (11%), and Wisconsin (10%), and they received between 5% and 9% in the rest of the major electoral races. Although Democrats won more than 40 seats in the House of Representatives at the expense of Republicans and benefited from a favorable electoral climate in the first midterm elections of the Trump era, they lost two Senate seats because they were defending seats in Republican-majority states.

This year, Fox News polls classify Republicans into Trump supporters and non-supporters. Four Democratic Senate candidates received at least 21% of the votes from non-Trump-supporting Republicans: Cooper in North Carolina (21%), Talarico in Texas (22%), Brown in Ohio (25%), and Torric in Iowa (28%).

Abd Al-Sayed received 12% of the votes from Republican voters who do not support Trump in Michigan, while Democrats also received 12% in the latest national poll. Given the clear issues Trump is facing with his base, if Democrats achieve a historic victory on November 3, this group of voters may be a focal point of extensive discussion following the elections.