Analysis: The Amman and Karak attacks open the file of former convicts in terrorism cases

Hadeel Ghabboun Amman, Jordan - The Jordanian street did not comprehend the shock of the attack on the “Hamoud” church in the Karak Governorate in the south of the country, about two weeks ago, until the capital, Amman, witnessed a new attack that the authorities described as “terrorist” last Thursday. The security man targeted Corporal Jawad Al-Salaita, in front of the Sri Lankan embassy, ​​and led to his killing at the hands of a former convict in a terrorist case. The two incidents intersect in the involvement of people who had previously been convicted of cases related to supporting ISIS, according to what judicial decisions revealed, which reopened questions about the effectiveness of reform programs within correctional and rehabilitation centers, the mechanisms for assessing risk before releasing convicts, and the adequacy of supervision over them after their release.

Judicial precedents and terrorist plans. Judicial decisions seen by Ufoq News in Arabic from legal sources indicate that the perpetrator of the embassy attack, Muhannad Al-Hamouri, a graduate of electrical engineering from Yarmouk University, was sentenced to 9 years of temporary labor in 2022, and he completed his sentence days before the last attack. In 2022, the Court of Cassation upheld the ruling issued by the State Security Court against him to nine years in prison, after he was convicted of conspiracy with the intent to commit terrorist acts, promoting the ideas of a terrorist group, and attempting to join armed groups and terrorist organizations.

According to the ruling, Al-Hammouri’s association with ISIS began in 2014, after he was influenced by the organization’s ideas, followed its publications, and pledged allegiance to its leader at the time, Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi, then renewed his pledge of allegiance to his successor, Abu Ibrahim Al-Hashimi Al-Qurashi, in 2019. He also communicated via the “Telegram” application with one of the organization’s members to inquire about a safe way to reach Sinai and join its ranks with other defendants in the case, but the tendency was to postpone travel for fear of being arrested by the army. Egyptian.

In 2019, he moved to plan to carry out an attack inside Jordan, as he agreed with a friend of his to target a security center north of Irbid, and they went to inspect the site and plan to secure firearms. They were arrested on February 3, 2020, before the plan was implemented, while the Court of Cassation upheld the sentence issued against Al-Hammouri on June 16, 2022.

In the file of the main accused in the “Hamoud” church attack, Hazza Zidan Muhammad, judicial rulings revealed that he was convicted in 2023 and sentenced to 7 years of temporary labor, after his involvement in a plan to target border guard forces and promote the ideas of ISIS. The facts of the ruling indicate that Hazza, who served in the Jordanian Armed Forces as part of the electronic reconnaissance battalion on the border fronts between 2006 and 2014, communicated via Messenger with a person outside Jordan, whom the ruling described as a member of the organization, and exchanged with him ideas related to jihad.

He also participated with a group of people in discussions about ISIS and promoting its ideas. The matter developed into planning to target Israeli soldiers and patrols on the Jordanian border with the West Bank, from the direction of Ghor al-Safi and Wadi Araba, with an agreement to secure weapons and inspect the area.

Hazza was arrested on February 2, 2021, before the plan was implemented, and the Court of Cassation upheld his sentence on November 13, 2023. Questions about release and rehabilitation. Observers are concerned about the widespread recurrence of “terrorist acts” among former prisoners, who were associated with what is known as “organizations” or those convicted in terrorism cases since 2016 who are punished less than the death penalty, which witnessed several operations. Terrorism, which is what specialists in extremist groups have warned about for years.

The journalist who specializes in covering State Security Court cases, Linda Al-Maayah, says that the available information indicates that Al-Hamouri’s sentence recently ended and that he was released days before the embassy attack. It also indicates that Hazza also finished his sentence in May of this year. Al-Ma'aya estimates the number of terrorist cases that Jordan has dealt with since 2016 at about 300, noting that the cases of Al-Hammouri and Hazzaa raise questions about the supervision of convicts and the feasibility of reform and reintegration programs, especially in cases whose punishments do not reach the death penalty.

She points out that release after serving three-quarters of the sentence is linked to good conduct, but she believes that terrorist cases require reconsidering the criteria for release, subjecting convicts to a serious security and intellectual assessment before releasing them, and strengthening subsequent oversight. Observers cautiously link the embassy attack, as a “retaliatory” operation, to the air strike carried out by the Royal Jordanian Air Force in southern Syria on the evening of October 26, 2026, which targeted ISIS sites, which was called “Operation Al-Aderni-Hamoud Deterrence,” following the Hammoud Church attack on October 23, 2026.

For his part, the former head of the State Military Security Court, Fawaz Al-Baqour, called for a study of the causes of the two recent attacks, and the motives for the return of people who had previously been convicted of terrorist crimes to commit similar acts after their release from prison, considering that the repetition of these incidents calls for a review of the effectiveness of reform and rehabilitation programs. Al-Baqour told Ofoq News in Arabic that the return of two convicts, one of whom spent seven years and the other nine years in prison, to commit terrorist acts, raises questions about the extent to which the punishments achieve their reform and deterrent goals.

He stresses the need to conduct a specialized evaluation before release, with the participation of security agencies, clerics, scholars, and behavioral specialists, to verify the extent to which the convict has retreated from his extremist ideas and his ability to integrate into society. He points out that some convicts succeeded in returning to their normal lives, work, and social integration, while rehabilitation programs did not achieve the same result for others.

Al-Baqour explained that the repetition of crimes related to terrorism is not a “general phenomenon” among all convicts, as some people remain committed to their ideas despite the punishments issued against them. He pointed out that imprisonment does not necessarily lead in all cases to reform, but may sometimes contribute to increasing extremism and extremism as a result of people with extremist ideas coming into contact with each other inside prisons, noting that those convicted in terrorism cases are placed in shared dormitories within correctional and rehabilitation centers.

Global Terrorism Index Jordan recorded an improvement in the Global Terrorism Index issued in 2026, as its score declined from 2.913 points in 2024 to 2.268 points in 2025, a decrease of about 22.1%. However, a comparison over a decade, between 2015 and 2025, according to the report, shows a slight increase of 0.105 points.

The report indicates that the annual decline does not necessarily mean a decrease in the level of the terrorist threat to the same extent, as the indicator measures the impact of recorded attacks, and does not directly reflect the plans that were thwarted before their implementation or the possibilities of future attacks, nor does it measure the effectiveness of programs to rehabilitate convicts and follow them up after their release. For his part, retired Major General Ahmed Bani Hamdan believes that Jordan has achieved progress in confronting extremism and terrorism through the national strategy that was launched in 2014, and the security efforts that contributed to thwarting terrorist plans and preserving the security of the Kingdom.

Bani Hamdan pointed out, in statements to the Arabic website Ofoq News, that there is a deficiency in coordinating the efforts of civil institutions and integrating their roles in confronting extremism, while pointing out that the Directorate of Combating Extremism witnessed administrative transfers between more than one party; I moved from the Ministry of Interior in 2015 to the Ministry of Culture in 2016, then to the Prime Minister’s Office in 2020, considering that the effectiveness of confrontation requires clarity of roles, continuity of institutional work, and not limiting responsibility to the security services. Bani Hamdan said that Jordan had a role in the international coalition to fight ISIS, in addition to launching the Aqaba Meetings Initiative, which provided a framework for coordination and exchange of experiences in confronting extremist groups.

Bani Hamdan warns of the growing role of the digital space and the social environment in attracting individuals and spreading extremist ideology, and of the dangers of reform and rehabilitation centers turning into environments for reproducing extremism in the absence of appropriate rehabilitation programs. Meanwhile, Bani Hamdan stressed the need to address the social and economic factors that organizations exploit in recruitment, and to follow up on developments in southern Syria and the associated activity of armed groups and arms and drug smuggling networks, in light of the possibilities of the return of ISIS activity and its attempts to communicate with sympathizers inside Jordan.