So That Iraq Does Not Become an Iranian Banana Republic

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The withdrawal of American and other allied international forces comes during the most difficult and dangerous days, amid the American-Iranian war.

Over the past ten years, Iraqi forces and institutions have sought to maintain Iraq's sovereignty and the independence of its decision-making. With the Americans' departure, the Iranians want to replace them. Evidence from Tehran's project indicates that it aims to control Baghdad's decision-making and dominate the main state pillars such as the military, security, and parliament.

With the withdrawal of American forces, Iraqis face the danger of a security and political vacuum that recalls what happened in Afghanistan and Somalia after a similar withdrawal, albeit under different circumstances and contexts.

Iran has models for controlling the decisions of targeted countries by creating parallel forces that it controls, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen. Now, Iraq faces the challenge of preserving its independence and sovereignty.

What may happen next raises concerns among the larger segment of Iraqis, as well as neighboring countries, Syria, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Kuwait.

The options for the Iraqi citizen, regardless of their political inclinations or affiliations, will determine their future, the future of their children, and their country. Does Iraq want to become like Lebanon and Yemen, where Tehran's dominance has contributed to failure, bankruptcy, and chaos? Or does it want to transform into a stable and economically successful country like its Arab and Turkish neighbors? The path to escaping the Iranian danger may not be paved with carpets and saffron, but rather requires honesty and insistence on the sovereignty of the Iraqi state. Iran will realize that it cannot dominate if it feels a consensus among Iraqis rejecting it, and no matter how ambitious it is regarding its wealthy neighbor, it ultimately does not want to become an enemy of the majority of the Iraqi people.

What Prime Minister Ali Al-Zaydi courageously initiated by calling for the restriction of arms to the state is a first and main step to strengthening the security backbone and will be the key to Iraq's stability.

Iraq needs, among other things, to build a diversified economy open to the world to reduce external influence. The future of Iraq, which Al-Zaydi himself spoke about, lies in a successful economic power rather than being a country of militias or dependent on foreign aid. Economic strength plays a balancing role with regional powers, including Iran, which can be an economic partner rather than making Iraq a banana republic subordinate to it.

The post-American withdrawal phase will require addressing the local wounds that have not fully healed and returning to dialogue to agree on national constants, including respect for the constitution, borders, and sovereignty instead of disputing factional influence. The militia-driven rush to seek assistance from Iran will awaken sectarian and regional forces and drag the country into another cycle of violence.

The Prime Minister, despite having only taken over leadership in Iraq four months ago, has gained the trust of most local circles, which he earned through his decisions against corruption and tyranny, and through his economic development program.

Regional relations play a fundamental role in supporting Iraq's independence due to geography and shared interests. Iran is an important neighbor to Iraq, and no one expects the relationship to be anything but strong, but without descending, after the American withdrawal, to a level of hegemony and regional exploitation. In the same balance, both the Gulf states and Jordan are watching what will happen inside their Iraqi neighbor. The interest of these countries is that Baghdad becomes a successful central state with true sovereignty over its decisions, and not a follower of regional powers seeking to use it as an antagonistic front against neighboring countries. The same applies to the relationship with Syria, which has a wide border extension with Iraq.

With the simultaneous occurrence of two major events, the Iranian-American war and the departure of Americans from Iraq, anti-regional activities and threats have increased. We cannot take seriously what is issued from unofficial Iraqi platforms that threaten Syria and the Gulf, but these inciting voices contribute to raising the level of tension and political mobilization.

Unfortunately, the region has known Iraq for nearly four decades, under Baathist rule, as a source of crises for neighboring countries, from Turkey to Kuwait and Syria. Due to the aggressive policies of the Baath regime, getting rid of it was a demand from both Iraqis and the region, despite the aversion of many to see change brought about by American occupation.

Everyone wishes to see Iraqis finally enjoying a stable and prosperous state that shares in development and reinforces peace and regional cooperation. Iraq and the region are going through a delicate and dangerous phase that requires clarity and cooperation for everyone to emerge safely.

According to "Asharq Al-Awsat"