Syria and the Pressures After Assad.. "A Huge Hammer Over Damascus"

A man in eastern Syria complains about the skyrocketing fuel prices, looking at the crowds that are filming him with their phones, and addressing the transitional president of the country by saying: "We stood by you, so stand by us. I swear to God, if things do not change from now until the new year, the situation will lead to what we do not want.

Security forces are watching the scene as the man openly criticizes the government, but what was their reaction after these criticisms: nothing. Thousands of Syrians poured into the streets earlier this month, in the widest wave of protests the country has seen since Bashar al-Assad's fall nearly two years ago.

In contrast to the situation under the "police state" run by his family for 54 years - where public challenges to authority could mean imprisonment, torture, disappearance, or death - protesters were allowed to return home this time. Footage of the protests spread widely through official media, in stark contrast to the Assad era; at that time, state television promoted misleading information to discredit the protesters, including claims that the protests were staged and filmed in distant studios in Qatar.

Syria is currently going through a phase of balancing newly acquired political freedom with an economic recovery that remains frustratingly out of reach for ordinary citizens, many of whom are beginning to lose patience. The recent protests erupted due to a sudden government decision to raise fuel prices by up to 40%, which the government attributed to the global energy crisis caused by the war in Iran.

As public anger escalated, the government rolled back some of the increases and sent the Minister of Energy to appear before parliament in a move aimed at showing accountability. Analysts praised the government's response to what is considered its biggest test of economic resilience so far, but they warned that this step would not change the fundamental underpinnings of the cost-of-living crisis the country is facing.

The World Bank estimates that two-thirds of Syrians live below the poverty line for the lower middle-income bracket, with their daily income falling below $3.65. In a statement to Afaaq News Network, Ibrahim Al-Aseel, director of the Syrian Transition Lab at Harvard University's Kennedy School, said: "We will witness these protests repeating over and over; it is almost impossible to overcome the severe economic challenges that Syrians are facing."

He added: "The situation will become more difficult and challenging over time." This economic pressure is widening the gap between the expectations of Syrians from their new government and their actual reality.

Charles Lister, director of Syria programs at the Middle East Institute in Washington, D.C., says: "It was inevitable that the honeymoon period would end; it was expected that people's ambitions would rise and their patience would wear thin if those expectations were not met. And this is exactly the situation we find ourselves in now."

Transitional President Ahmad Al-Shara is racing against time to rebuild Syria - a task estimated to cost around $216 billion - before people's patience runs out; he inherited a nearly bankrupt state that had been plundered by Assad and his entourage, which has made the new regime heavily reliant on foreign investments. His strategy has been to bring the country back to the global stage after decades of isolation, and he is now seeking to turn this international momentum into tangible economic gains.

In this context, Al-Shara said before the United Nations General Assembly on Wednesday: "Syria has regained its position in the international community and has become a crossroads for the world. We have also built diplomatic bridges and proven to the world that regional security must start from Damascus."

Perhaps the best embodiment of this global openness towards al-Shar' is the friendly relationship he shares with U.S. President Donald Trump, whom he has met four times since May of last year. This relationship has resulted in the complete lifting of all U.S. sanctions imposed on Syria, which is a crucial step in opening the door to foreign investments.

Turkey, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE have led the foreign investment movement so far, with Syria estimating these investments at around $28 billion last year. The European Union has also pledged support worth $2.7 billion, and French President Emmanuel Macron signed several new agreements in the fields of economy, transport, and infrastructure during a visit to Damascus in July.

According to estimates from an expert on Syrian affairs, the new government has met with representatives from about 100 countries since taking office. In a gesture that reflects a pragmatic approach, al-Shar' maintains relations with both Russian President Vladimir Putin - the most prominent ally of the former regime - and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

The strategic geographical location of Syria highlights its strategic importance amid the current international division, where support for Syria's future has become a rare point of consensus, largely due to its geographical position; Syria lies at the heart of the Middle East, linking Asia and Europe through its ports on the Mediterranean Sea. This trend stems from the belief that, just as the repercussions of the Syrian civil war extended beyond its borders, causing a migration crisis and paving the way for the rise of ISIS, a stable and prosperous Syria would enhance regional stability, encourage the return of refugees, and curb extremism.

Amid tensions related to Iran, al-Shar' has utilized Syria's strategic location to present it as a modern version of the 'Silk Road,' and a commercial hub serving as an alternative land bridge to the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Practical steps have already begun to implement this idea, with thousands of trucks carrying oil from southern Iraq crossing Syrian territory to reach the port of Baniyas on the Mediterranean.

However, these ambitious government plans have not yet yielded tangible results for ordinary Syrian citizens. Leicester believes that the international community sees a real opportunity to rebuild Syria's future, but it will take time.

He said: "The reality is that most of these projects are strategic projects that extend over ten years; they will not lead to an immediate reduction in the price of bread, or provide more fuel or lower its cost in Syria." Leicester points out that the lifting of U.S. sanctions has led to a flow of a range of new investment projects - small and medium - that will provide job opportunities for the population at a faster pace.

He added: "This type of project offers a much greater opportunity to plant the seeds that will help alleviate the challenges faced by ordinary Syrians. However, these problems will not be solved overnight; it is likely to take another year or two."

The depletion of the "revolutionary" political capital Karam Shaar, a Syrian political economist who runs a consulting firm, estimates that only 5% of the promised deals have made tangible progress. Among the most notable of these projects are the renovation of energy infrastructure and Damascus Airport, carried out by UCC Holding, led by the influential Syrian-Qatari brothers, the Khayyat family.

Shaar told Afaq News Network: "There is no doubt that the economy is recovering, but that is not the question that occupies the mind of the ordinary citizen; what really matters to him is whether his living conditions are improving." In an interview with Reuters, a Syrian protester named Bassam Al-Ali complained about the government's focus on large deals instead of improving living standards and reducing the cost of living.

He addressed Al-Shara: "We do not want roundabouts; every day they build a new roundabout at a high cost, shopping centers, and so on. Your people stood with you, and they still are, and they will continue to do so, but this situation could lead to an explosion of matters."

Al-Aseel warned that with the increasing economic discontent, the "revolutionary legitimacy" that Al-Shara's government has gained may fade. He added: "Buying people's patience requires allowing them to participate and making them feel that their voices are heard."

Even if the government manages to bridge the gap between international investments and tangible economic improvement in daily life, it faces another obstacle that largely lies outside its control; an obstacle that Al-Shara explicitly pointed out during his speech at the United Nations on Wednesday. He said: "The world shows relief at our return, but Israel is launching attacks against Syria."

This contrasts with the trends we observe globally." Al-Shara estimated that Israel has carried out nearly 500 strikes inside Syria since he took office.

Israel also occupies large parts of southern Syria, and Israeli officials have stated that the army plans to remain there indefinitely. Israel claims that it does not trust Al-Shara and needs a security buffer zone to prevent terrorist attacks on its territory, while Syria - which has been ravaged by war - insists that it does not wish to enter into conflict with its neighbor.

It is mentioned that the two parties have been holding direct talks since August of last year. Al-Shar'a stated on Tuesday, during a discussion session organized by the "Atlantic Council" in New York, that the negotiations "achieved a 90% consensus" before Israel withdrew from them for "various reasons."

Leicester points out that the instability caused by Israeli practices is a major concern for investors who inquire about the available opportunities in Syria. He said: "If Israel continues its current approach after its elections (scheduled for October), the likelihood of an influx of more foreign investments into Syria will diminish; as it is waving a huge hammer over the head of Damascus."

He added: "This issue is specifically a fundamental pillar in discussions related to economic recovery, just like issues of sanctions, investment prospects, and small and medium-sized enterprises; the Israeli role is no less important than those files."