Widespread Chaos.. 3 Routes to Cross the Strait of Hormuz and Iran Seeks to Control It Despite the Agreement

- "If any ship attempts to cross the Strait of Hormuz without our permission... or outside the designated route, it is responsible for any consequences."

This warning was issued on Thursday by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard to ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz - a vital and strategic passage for oil transport - which now stands out as one of the biggest tests of the agreement reached between Iran and the United States to end their war. Just hours later, the container ship Ever Lovely, flying the Singapore flag, was struck by an Iranian drone, according to an American official speaking to Ofaq News.

President Donald Trump described this attack - the first of its kind on a ship since the signing of the agreement - as an "idiotic violation of the ceasefire agreement." In response, the U.S. military carried out strikes against Iranian military targets around the Strait of Hormuz on Friday.

However, an American official downplayed the likelihood of escalation following the strikes, telling Ofaq News that they do not reflect a return to major combat operations. The Iranian state channel Press TV reported that the Revolutionary Guard announced it targeted American military sites in the region in response to the strikes on Friday, but the U.S. military did not confirm these strikes.

Bahrain also reported Iranian drone attacks on its territory early Saturday, though the nature of the targeted objective remains unclear. The ceasefire agreement stipulates that Iran must make "arrangements to do its utmost" to ensure the safe passage of commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz, through which one-fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas supplies pass.

The guarantee of unhindered navigation was the main concession that Iran offered to the United States. However, for Iran, reopening the Strait does not mean relinquishing control over it.

A vaguely worded clause in the agreement states that Iran and Oman will work together "to determine the future management" of the waterway, which effectively gives Tehran an official role in its administration. As negotiations with the United States continue, the strike on Thursday is an indication of Iran's determination to impose its conditions on the Strait, determining the routes and timing of ship crossings.

The Revolutionary Guard did not recognize the routes that were not approved by Tehran, describing them as "unacceptable" and "extremely dangerous" and "prohibited," urging all ships to coordinate exclusively with its naval forces to ensure safe passage. Meanwhile, the so-called "Persian Gulf Strait Authority" (PGSA) - recently established by Iran - issued regulations stating that ships must fill out a delegation form via email in exchange for obtaining a "guarantee of safe passage" which includes insurance coverage.

The Afaq News Network attempted to contact the "Persian Gulf Strait Authority," but emails sent to the authority were returned without a response. Now, three different routes for ships have emerged in this narrow waterway, with various entities competing to organize the movement of dozens of ships through the waterway, which is 21 miles wide.

One of the southern routes passes through waters opposite Oman; a second route - which was used before the war - runs through the middle of the Strait, while a third route located to the north is under Iran's control. This puts ship operators in a difficult position regarding which route they should follow.

Dimitris Maniatis, the CEO of Marisks, a consultancy specializing in maritime risks, told Afaq News: "All of this is causing significant confusion regarding safe navigation in those waters," adding that "the current situation is extremely dangerous." Shipping companies fear U.S. sanctions, and the lack of clarity regarding the path to be followed complicates efforts to restore trade through the waterway to pre-war levels.

Shipping companies say that whatever the leaders of Iran and the United States may have agreed upon does not reflect in the sea. These competing corridors have caused confusion for companies, as they now have to navigate not only through perilous waters—where they face threats from naval mines, drones, and patrol boats belonging to the Revolutionary Guard—but also through complex political currents across the strait.

If ships choose non-Iranian routes, they risk being attacked. However, if they comply with the Revolutionary Guard's demands and use the Iranian route, they fear facing Western sanctions in the event of a collapse of the agreement.

Maniatis from Marisks told Afaq News: "The global shipping sector wants to avoid dealing with the Iranian side due to concerns about the possibility of facing U.S. sanctions in the future." He added: "People are very cautious of the current U.S. administration because they have previously stated that paying any transit fees to the Iranian regime could be grounds for U.S. sanctions."

Iran initially demanded payment for transit, but later stated that it would not impose immediate transit fees. Instead, it plans to impose fees for maritime services and introduce a new environmental tax on ships, a move that has surprised America's Arab allies among oil-exporting countries.

Following the attack on the ship Ever Lovely, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) halted a coordinated humanitarian evacuation operation aimed at removing more than 500 commercial vessels - carrying over 11,000 sailors - from the Gulf region, "until matters are clarified," according to a statement from the organization. Maritime experts noted that at least 4 ships turned back from the shipping lane after that.

As for the ships choosing the Omani route - which is less susceptible to sanctions - they are passing very close to each other, increasing the risk of accidents. During the war, insurance premiums rose significantly as ship owners paid over a million dollars for each Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) to protect against attacks.

These premiums remain high despite such incidents occurring rarely now. Matthew Wright, senior shipping analyst at Kepler, a company specializing in data intelligence and global shipping tracking and commodity flows, told Afaq News that ships need to determine the route they will take to obtain insurance that allows them to cross the strait.

Wright said: "This does not mean a return to square one, but it clearly indicates that we are still in a ceasefire period extending for sixty days, rather than having a firm guarantee that the Strait of Hormuz is on a certain path towards reopening." He added: "If disputes are not resolved by mid-August, we may end up seeing the three routes used in a more chaotic and less safe manner."

Despite the confusion, maritime risk assessment companies remain cautiously optimistic that ships have begun their perilous journey after months of uncertainty, even if it requires dealing with the new political realities in the strait by choosing between competing routes and bearing much higher costs. However, the companies themselves warn that there is still a clear gap between what leaders have agreed upon in negotiation rooms and what is actually happening in the strait.

The state of uncertainty is driving many shipping company owners to wait for a continuous period of incident-free passage before allowing their ships to sail again. Wright explained: "We are starting from a reality characterized by a severe lack of trust between the two sides, so the agreement is a good first step.

But it is clear that there is a significant gap between what the United States says and what the Iranians say." He added: "We are going through a phase characterized by rampant chaos."