The Secret Travel Season is No Longer a Secret.. Has the Era of Cheap Travel in Autumn Ended?

- Heather Wright, an American, has always been a fan of traveling outside the peak season, when the weather becomes milder, crowds diminish, and prices drop significantly. However, this pattern that travelers have grown accustomed to as autumn approaches seems to be changing.

Wright, who works as a tax accountant and lives in Seattle, plans to travel with her friends to Europe in November, possibly to Malta or Madeira. She hoped to find a good fare from the United States to one of the major European airports, and then use shorter flights to reach her final destination.

However, she did not find the discounts she was expecting. Wright was surprised by the unusual rise in autumn prices this year, especially for airline tickets.

Data indicates that her observation is correct, as high jet fuel prices, resulting from the war with Iran, have led to a significant increase in ticket prices this year and a rise in demand for travel in the fall, contributing to higher prices. Therefore, it is still possible to find good deals, but travelers need to be more flexible and plan ahead.

It seems that what was once known as the "secret season" for travel is no longer a secret, especially among travelers seeking luxury trips. Misty Bels, Vice President of Global Public Relations at the luxury travel network Virtuoso, states that "autumn is the new summer."

Virtuoso's data indicates that fall 2026 bookings have increased by 59% compared to last year, while the revenue generated from them has risen by 69%. Additionally, bookings for Europe in the fall have increased by 49%, despite prices rising by more than 7%.

This suggests that many travelers are choosing fall for its better weather and fewer crowds, not just for financial savings. In the United States, the advantage of lower prices that the fall season once enjoyed has also diminished.

According to data from Hopper Technology Solutions, the average prices for domestic flights in the fall have risen by 39% compared to last year, bringing prices close to peak summer levels. Four years ago, domestic flight tickets in the fall were about 20% lower than peak summer prices, but this year they are 1% higher.

This is attributed to rising fuel prices, increased demand due to remote work flexibility, and decreased competition from low-cost airlines. Additionally, the Expedia platform found that travel costs to its top ten U.S. destinations, including New York, Miami, and New Orleans, are higher in the fall than in the summer.

Accommodation costs have risen by an average of 20%, while flight prices have increased by 2%. However, some coastal and mountain destinations still offer good opportunities for savings.

In the United Kingdom as well, hotel prices in some destinations during the fall have become equal to or higher than summer prices, with increases in some places reaching between 20% and 30%. However, lower prices can be found in some areas of Portugal and the Greek islands.

Melanie Fish from the Expedia Group says that opportunities for savings in the fall "have not disappeared, but they are no longer automatic." With the spread of dynamic pricing in hotels, hotel owners no longer automatically lower prices once summer ends.

Therefore, experts advise flexibility when choosing the destination, airport, and travel dates. Using different airports within the same region may help reduce costs.

Avoiding popular travel days from Thursday to Sunday can also be a way to save, as Sunday is usually one of the cheapest days of the week to stay. For international travel, flight prices in the fall will remain lower than in summer in many areas, but the amount of decrease has become smaller.

In 2023, flight prices to Europe dropped by 33% from summer to fall, while this year's expected decrease is only 22%. At the same time, flight prices from the United States to Europe this fall have risen by 33% compared to last fall.

One of the main reasons for travelers shifting towards autumn is the extremely high temperatures in summer, along with the crowds. Travel consultant Jo-Ann Redwood says that September has practically replaced August, while October has begun to replace September as a preferred travel time.

When Redwood searched for river cruises in late October and early November, she found prices were higher by about 15% to 20%, or around a thousand dollars, compared to early September. Additionally, rooms in small luxury hotels have become scarcer.

However, the increased interest in autumn does not necessarily mean that overall travel has risen across all sectors. Some data indicates a decline in American bookings to Europe by about 6% compared to the previous year, while growth appears stronger in the luxury travel market.

As for Wright, she is still looking for a suitable deal for her trip next November. She is considering combining separate one-way tickets, different travel classes, and paying with a mix of cash and credit card miles.

But she has noticed many empty seats despite the continued high prices. She wonders if there is some kind of standoff between airlines and travelers, with each side waiting to see who will back down first.

Currently, she continues to monitor ticket prices, hoping to find a good deal, confirming that she does not want to spend a huge amount on a trip in November, as that, for her, is unreasonable.