An explosive shipment against fragile internal stability

Listen to the article. The audio text is automated, generated by an automated system

Why does Iran/Hezbollah appear to have deliberately sent the explosives shipment to be detected? The details of the operation show some stupidity and naivety. If the purpose of the shipment is to send a “message” both internally and externally, it must be important and worthy of depriving the “resistance” of this large quantity of explosive materials... unless the shipment was sent to be easily detected as a cover for another, more important shipment (this is one of the smugglers’ methods, but it means that the “party” no longer enjoys the previous “confidence” and “security” in managing its affairs), or unless it is confident that it will be able To recover the shipment after a period of confiscation through the tunnels he dug in the depths of the “deep state.”

Meanwhile, the “party” is certain that its “message” has been conveyed, as evidenced by the discussion and controversy it has sparked in the media and at every level, as in the “Ministerial Council,” which has become distinguished from the “Cabinet of Ministers.” What could the title of the “message” be other than a threat to the inside, as long as the state is scoring points in its political confrontation with the “party,” and as long as the outside (the American, specifically) depends on the state and wants to deal with others, while tightening sanctions on Iran, complicating negotiations with it, and weakening the Lebanese card in its hand? After their failure in the confrontation with Israel, as well as the state's failure to achieve gains from negotiating with it, Iran and its "party" find that the moment is appropriate to re-demonstrate their influence inside Lebanon and remind that internal stability is fragile and easy to destabilize with a round of bombings and assassinations. There is nothing new in this, because the absence of achievements reinforces the logic of chaos.

Iran deals with Lebanon with a punitive approach, just as it deals with the Gulf states, especially Saudi Arabia. Within its speech and the speeches of its agents is a constant reminder that there is a settling of scores with every country that did not submit to the Iranian will at the appropriate time. If Iran is sinking into its current crisis, it is determined to drag the region with it, regardless of whether it succeeds or not.

It has always been clear that Iran's project in Lebanon is to make it one of its "arenas", as Syria and Gaza were previously, and as Iraq and Yemen are currently, that is, for its "party" to have the highest say in it, which has managed to domesticate the state and the army and recruit them into an equation: all support for the "resistance" (led by the "Revolutionary Guard") in exchange for its defense of the corruption system. This equation is faltering because the “party” will not return to what it was, while the option of the state and reform is in dire need of protection and fortification to avoid its downfall.

Everyone agrees that the stage is difficult and portends a decisive confrontation, but Lebanon does not show the ability to deal with it. The state has taken the right decisions and does not implement them even if it is threatened with bombings and assassinations. As for the “Iranian Party,” it sees the state’s inability (or reluctance to use its capabilities) as an opportunity to continue to weaken it.

Meanwhile, Israel is acting on the basis that it and the United States have delivered painful strikes that will not enable Iran and its proxies to disrupt the project to expand its area (at the expense of Lebanon, Syria, Gaza, and the West Bank), whoever its next prime minister is. As for Iran, it acts as if it has accomplished the defeat of America and has now moved to expand its influence through its “experts” supervising the escalation of the Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia. Israel offers Riyadh assistance in Yemen (of course in exchange for “normalization”, which is rejected), and Tehran offers to “mediate” between it and Al-Houthi (of course according to the logic of sharing influence in Yemen, which is also rejected). Not only Lebanon is under threat, but the entire Arab region.