CIA Secret Report: Israel on the Brink of Civil War and Political Collapse

Washington - Afaq News - American sources revealed that a secret assessment prepared by the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) warned of Israel's risk of slipping into civil war or political collapse, amid rising political, economic, and social fractures within the country, following years of wars in Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran.

According to the two sources who spoke to the American site 'Drop Site News', the report was prepared last August under the title 'Infiltration from Within', by experts in the CIA's 'Red Team', a unit dedicated to conducting assessments and forward-looking analyses outside traditional frameworks.

It appears that the assessment is limited to Jewish citizens in Israel and does not take into account Arab citizens, who make up about 20% of its population. The CIA did not respond to a request for comment.

CIA experts pointed to a volatile mix of pressures converging ahead of Israel's elections on October 27: an economic crisis and rising military spending; the return of armed veterans from prolonged combat, many of whom suffer from severe psychological trauma; increasing anger over exemptions for ultra-Orthodox men from military service; escalating violence from settlers in the West Bank; and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who is struggling for power and, according to the report, is igniting a constitutional crisis.

The CIA's 'Red Teams' are tasked with developing analyses and ideas that challenge prevailing assumptions and reveal collective thinking or inherent weaknesses within the intelligence apparatus.

A source in the intelligence indicated that "the authors of these reports are experts in Israeli affairs."

He added: "This is not just fanciful assumptions; with the upcoming elections and divisions within Israel, we should take their conclusion seriously, which is that Israel is one spark away from a real internal conflict."

The report showed one of the deepest divisions in Israel regarding military conscription, with the exemption of Haredim from service continuing and their receiving state support. As reserve soldiers are repeatedly called up and taken away from their jobs and families, public anger towards this exemption has escalated, at a time when Haredi leaders refuse conscription, viewing it as a threat to their religious lives and Torah study.

Families have also borne the costs of Israel's aggressive policies. Food prices have reached record levels, with the cost of food - including fresh fruits and vegetables - rising by 9.5% over the past two years, exacerbating an already severe cost of living crisis after years of war.

The main Zionist parties opposing Netanyahu are divided over the leadership of the coalition and its strategy, while one of the main axes of the attack on Netanyahu is holding him responsible for the security failure on October 7.

Recent opinion polls have shown that both Netanyahu's bloc and the anti-Netanyahu bloc are struggling to secure the 61 seats necessary to form a government.

Sources have warned that the meeting of political fragmentation and the increasing number of armed veterans suffering from psychological trauma has historical precedents.

He said: "The German Freikorps was known to include soldiers suffering from psychological trauma, who were armed and thirsty for blood." He added: "I am not saying that Israel after Gaza is Germany after World War I, but there are certainly similarities between the two in my opinion."

Israel is also facing increasing isolation abroad, including a decline in support in the United States, which Israeli officials themselves described in private conversations as a long-term threat. An August report pointed to Israel's growing status as a quasi-reviled state as a factor that could lead to its disintegration.

According to another assessment by the CIA published in the magazine "Capital & Empire" in July, Israeli officials believe that the American political consensus underpinning the alliance is beginning to unravel, and that continued reliance on billions of dollars in direct American military aid may ultimately become politically unacceptable.

Their response was to seek further integration into the U.S. military and intelligence and security agencies, ties that officials in later administrations will find increasingly difficult to unravel.

By the spring of this year, the percentage of Americans viewing Israel negatively rose to 60%, compared to 53% the previous year, according to a Pew Research Center survey.

This decline in support is increasingly reflected within the U.S. national security establishment as well.

The source said: "The intelligence community, like America and the military, as is the case everywhere, feels a growing frustration over the real and political capital invested in supporting Israel.

As we move forward in integrating our military and industrial capabilities with them, frustration is growing because we are doing so for a country that has dragged us into a war we are losing, a country that spies on us."

The report from the American Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) also sought to study how these pressures could converge in the event of a worsening internal crisis in Israel, and how a single spark could turn a political division into an open civil conflict, along with the implications of that.

Among the proposed scenarios are: foreign technology and artificial intelligence companies withdrawing their investments or employees from Israel, which would further deteriorate its already weakened economy; regional governments reconsidering the political and strategic value of normalizing relations with Israel more deeply; and Hamas or Hezbollah exploiting the period of internal weakness. The report used the term "civil conflict," according to sources.

For decades, Israel's strength has not only relied on weapons and American support, but also on the prevailing belief that its military dominance, intelligence superiority, and internal cohesion make it practically an invulnerable state. However, as the assessment warned, beneath this facade of immense power, Israel is accumulating economic, political, and social contradictions that military power alone may not be able to contain.