How Will Iran Exploit the American Withdrawal from Iraq?

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Summary: The United States has not withdrawn from the Middle East, but has relocated part of its military presence in specific areas to other nearby locations. The forces that were deployed in Iraq have been distributed to Jordan and other arenas, while the United States continues its operations against Iran.

The completion of the U.S. military withdrawal from Iraq does not seem to align with the open battle that the United States is waging in the region against Iran and its proxies. It could have simply been expected that the presence of U.S. forces in Mesopotamia would be extended until the ongoing conflict is resolved and relations between America and Iran, as well as between the regional countries and Iran, are established on a clear basis of normal and balanced relations.

However, that did not happen. U.S. President Donald Trump is committed to his electoral promises regarding reducing the U.S. military presence in the world and withdrawing from its wars, particularly in Iraq. Trump's policy has criticized the approach of his predecessor, Barack Obama, as the latter's withdrawal from Afghanistan six years ago remains a subject of derision on Trump's and his allies' lips.

In a way, Trump's opponents will be able to raise similar remarks against him regarding his withdrawal from Iraq on September 30th, as this withdrawal could encourage Iran to expand its influence within Iraq, just as Obama's withdrawal led to the return of the Taliban to power in Kabul, raising complete concerns among its neighbors.

However, the U.S. withdrawal from Iraq does not automatically mean that Iran will replace America in this country, and that Iraq will become a platform for Iranian action in direct confrontation with Washington. However, the timing of the withdrawal, amidst the ongoing U.S.-Iranian war, complicates the matter further.

The United States states that the withdrawal is part of a planned and organized transition to a bilateral defense relationship with Baghdad, and that the mission to combat ISIS led by America has now become centered in Jordan. Nevertheless, the Iranian regime's eagerness to exploit the situation is not hidden from anyone.

There are strong indicators of this, as the Iranian Revolutionary Guard described the U.S. withdrawal as a "historic victory," while Iranian-backed Iraqi factions viewed the exit of U.S. forces as a result of their resistance to these forces. The welcome and analysis from the "Iranians" lead to three potential scenarios:

First, the expansion of Iranian political and security influence in Iraq, benefiting from the absence of U.S. forces.

Second, an increase in the freedom of movement for Iranian-backed armed factions, especially since the strongest of these factions did not agree to disarm. The disarmament deadline has been postponed to next June.

The third point is to transform Iraq into a strategic depth for Iran in any upcoming confrontation, instead of Iraq being a relatively advanced American platform as it was in previous confrontations. No one expects Iran to hesitate in using its Iraqi factions in open clashes, as it has done with all its followers in the surrounding countries, where it has involved them in deadly support wars from Lebanon to Yemen.

According to "Independent Arabic".