Iran escalates attacks and threats against the Gulf, and Trump chooses a “wait and wait” strategy

Analysis by Tim Lister and Aida Karimi - The Gulf states have been concerned for weeks about the possibility of Iran targeting them again, in order for Tehran to try to impose a settlement to the regional conflict that has been ongoing for nine months on its terms. This concern has exacerbated over the past few days, with two attempts to launch drone attacks on Bahrain, a US ally that hosts major US military facilities, in conjunction with Tehran’s warning to the Gulf states against “reopening old wounds.”

It appears that Iran is seeking to raise the ceiling of escalation at a time when it is struggling to prevent more Gulf oil and gas shipments from crossing the Strait of Hormuz, at a time when its economy is suffering under the weight of the American blockade and the repercussions of international sanctions. On Sunday, Bahrain announced the “interdiction and destruction” of a number of Iranian drones, following a similar interception operation that took place on Friday.

For its part, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard said that it was behind an attack that targeted an American helicopter base in Bahrain. Ofoq News Network contacted the US Central Command to obtain a comment.

The targeting of Bahrain coincided with Tehran adopting a more hostile tone towards neighboring countries, regarding the repercussions of any potential American or Israeli strikes, as well as regarding the course of negotiations with the United States. The Gulf Cooperation Council countries sparked Tehran's dissatisfaction after a proposal last week indicated the need for Iran to pay compensation to its neighbors for the attacks that affected their lands, a demand that Iran itself seeks to achieve within the framework of any agreement it concludes with the United States.

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman, Ismail Baghaei, asked in a press conference on Sunday, saying: “How can countries that participated in a military aggression against a neighboring country, and placed their airspace, lands and waters at the disposal of those who attacked Iranian territory, talk about demanding compensation from Iran? What about Iran’s inherent and legal right to defend itself?”

In a reminder that Iran does not forget the past, Baghaei said that the Gulf states “must be careful not to reopen old wounds,” referring to their support for Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein during the war with Iran in the 1980s. Ibtisam Al Ketbi, from the Emirates Policy Centre, said on Sunday: “Iran wants the Gulf states to pay the price for a war they did not choose, and then give up their right to accountability and compensation.

Attacks against maritime navigation An indication of growing concern about the possibility of renewed hostilities appeared last week, when the Gulf Cooperation Council announced the establishment of an advanced military command for the unified military command in the State of Kuwait. The Secretary-General of the Council, Jassim Mohammed Al-Budaiwi, stated that this step reflects “a firm Gulf commitment to protecting the security and sovereignty of the Gulf Cooperation Council countries,” in the wake of what he described as “the sinful Iranian attacks.”

For its part, Iran has intensified its attacks on shipping traffic in the Gulf, as allegations circulate - almost daily - (only a few of which have been proven) that oil tankers collided with sea mines while trying to cross the Strait of Hormuz. For Tehran, the rise in Gulf energy exports in recent weeks to levels approaching those before the war, coupled with the sharp decline in oil prices, deprives it of a vital leverage in the negotiations.

The International Energy Agency reported that Gulf oil exports - excluding the Sultanate of Oman - amounted to 18.4 million barrels per day in October, about 26% below pre-war levels. At the same time, Iran has been unable to export any significant amount of its crude oil for more than two months.

The Iranian regime demands an end to the US blockade, the gradual lifting of international sanctions, and the release of billions of dollars in frozen assets, as conditions for resuming negotiations with the United States. However, US President Donald Trump seems satisfied with the continued economic pressure on Iran, anticipating that Tehran will eventually be forced to ease its conditions, and at the same time aware of the desire of the Gulf states to avoid a new round of conflict.

“At the request of the countries I seek to protect, we are taking an approach that takes a little longer and is a little more civil,” Trump said Thursday. At the same time, Trump canceled efforts by his Vice President, J.D. Vance, to revive talks with Iran, declaring: “We do not need an agreement with Iran. Those days are long gone.”

A state of uncertainty It seems that the economic suffering in Iran is deepening, despite the insistence of senior officials in Tehran that the country is able to withstand the pressures, and that it has the ability to access hard currency to support the riyal, whose value has witnessed a sharp decline since the beginning of the conflict. One of the continuing indicators of this crisis is the long queues that appear in front of gas stations in many parts of Iran.

Iranian Vice President, Ismail Saqib Isfahani, acknowledged last week that there was a supply problem, noting that Iranians could no longer rely on gas stations to meet their needs. In the coastal city of Bandar Abbas, some residents blocked traffic on Thursday to protest the shortage of gasoline.

For his part, the Speaker of the Iranian Parliament, Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, suggested that officials stop talking about the fuel crisis, which is always a sensitive issue in Iran. However, there are no overt indications that the regime is willing to make concessions.

Baghaei was asked, on Sunday, whether Iran would accept a temporary halt to uranium enrichment or a reduction in enrichment levels within the framework of negotiations with Washington. At the present time, we are not discussing any details related to the nuclear file, and we have not held any such talks.”

For his part, Ghalibaf said on Sunday that it makes no difference whether Washington wants negotiation or war. He added: "If the Americans make another mistake this time, it will be the capabilities and will of the Iranian armed forces that will determine the geography of the battlefield."

Iran has repeatedly warned that any new chapter in the conflict would expand its goals to include infrastructure across the region, including submarine cables. Iran's allies in Yemen, the Houthis, are also launching ballistic missile attacks on Saudi Arabia on an almost daily basis, and they appear to have put government forces backed by Riyadh under renewed pressure in southern Yemen, forcing them to retreat from their positions near the Red Sea, which represents a setback for their military campaign.

The result is instability and uncertainty across the region. In this context, Israeli analyst Danny Citrinovic, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies, wrote on the X platform: “The United States may believe that it is able to maintain the blockade for a long time, but Iran views it as a direct threat to its economy, sovereignty, and national security.”

He added that the United States "cannot assume that the factor of time alone will force Tehran to surrender, as Iran has repeatedly demonstrated its willingness to bear heavy economic costs, rather than abandon what its leadership considers to be core national interests."