Israeli elections: 4 scenarios for Eisenkot and Netanyahu to move forward

- Israel faces weeks, and perhaps months, of political uncertainty, after the final results showed that there was no clear winner in the elections. Neither of the two main blocs - one led by the right-wing Likud party led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and the other led by the centrist Yesh Atid party led by its main rival Gadi Eisenkot - were unable to reach the required majority (61 seats) to form a government in the Israeli parliament, which includes 120 seats.

So, how do you form a new government? It certainly doesn't look easy; There are deep-rooted political and ideological divisions that make the formation of any coalition - even if it seems simple - almost impossible. However, it remains possible, even if this results in a fragile coalition that may not remain in power for more than about a year.

If party leaders are unable to reach a solution within the twelve weeks available to them, Israelis will find themselves forced to return to the ballot boxes. Here are some possible scenarios in which Israel might avoid this fate: The first scenario: an opposition government. In theory, the most secure path for the opposition to overthrow Netanyahu is based on cooperation between Jews and Arabs.

This is also the biggest obstacle you face. Two right-wing party leaders in the opposition bloc - former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and former Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman - oppose any government that relies on the two Arab parties in parliament (the Joint List and the United Arab List “Raam”), whether through participation within the government coalition or through providing support from abroad to a minority government.

Both leaders have taken tougher positions since the Hamas-led attack on October 7, 2023. In the history of Israel, only one government has seen the full participation of an Arab party; The United Arab List (“Ra’am”) was part of an eight-party coalition that succeeded in ousting Netanyahu in 2021, but this coalition collapsed after only one year in power.

Even if a new government is not formed, opposition parties can still work together and use their parliamentary majority to replace the Knesset speaker and fill other key positions, allowing them to restrict the movement of Netanyahu's transitional government while it remains in power. However, the prospects for forming an alternative coalition to Netanyahu leading Israel remain extremely complex and politically controversial.

The second scenario: a national unity government. There is another option, which is the disintegration of the two blocs in favor of forming a national unity government. It is certain that Netanyahu's Likud Party will be a party in this government, along with some of its current coalition partners, in addition to - and this is extremely important - at least one party from the opposition bloc.

In this case, it is believed that Netanyahu is ready to abandon the Minister of National Security, who belongs to the extreme right, Ben Gvir, but he is not prepared to abandon the Minister of Finance, who also belongs to the extreme right, Bezalel Smotrich, or the Haredi (ultra-Orthodox) parties. However, Eisenkot ruled out sitting with Netanyahu, and many Israelis - who are very eager for Bibi's departure - will consider his retreat from this position as a betrayal.

Third scenario: A government formed by Netanyahu’s bloc with the participation of dissidents. Another scenario could involve Netanyahu encouraging splits within opposition parties or among individual lawmakers.

But the leaders of the four opposition parties - Eisenkot, Bennett, Lieberman, and Yair Golan - announced that they would not sit with him. Given that Netanyahu's bloc lacks eight full seats, convincing eight individuals to defect from their camps represents an extremely difficult challenge.

Fourth Scenario: Another Election While all these possibilities are being discussed behind the scenes, Israeli President Isaac Herzog will hold a very public round of consultations with the leaders of the parties that managed to enter Parliament. After polling their opinions, the president will assign one of these leaders the task of trying to form a government.

Arab parties are expected to announce their support for Eisenkot, so he may be the first to be asked to take on this task. The chosen one will be given 28 days to complete the task, with the possibility of extending it for an additional 14 days if necessary. If that doesn't work, the president will ask another leader to try, and will also be given only 28 days to come up with a solution.

After that, a majority of Knesset members can ask the president to nominate a third candidate, who in turn is given 14 days to form a coalition. If none of these attempts lead to a breakthrough, new elections will be held.

Benjamin Netanyahu seems best placed to deal with this timetable; As a caretaker prime minister, he can wait; If his main competitor, Eisenkot, gets the first chance and fails, the assignment will likely pass to him (Netanyahu). If he too fails, the political stalemate in Israel will almost certainly lead to another round of elections, where Netanyahu will remain caretaker prime minister for months, until a new government is formed.

The possibility of holding new elections - which will not happen until next spring at the earliest - is a realistic possibility. The current results indicate that Israel is returning to a state of political paralysis, which could lead to the holding of its seventh general election in eight years.