Painful Besant missiles

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Since the outbreak of the Iranian war on February 28, two things have become clear: The first is that Iran strongly refuses to have anyone compete with it for first place in its hostility to the Arabs, especially the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council. The other thing is that it is an asymmetric war and must be conducted as a guerrilla war. Therefore, the strongest card is to expand the circle of damage based on the attempt to harm navigation in Hormuz with mines and projectiles.

The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia was clear that this was not its battle and therefore it did not interfere in it, and did not allow America to use its airspace to target Iran, but as a country it invested heavily in its infrastructure, including the East-West line, which emptied the Iranian card of seeking to raise oil prices of its usefulness, and this is an important point for understanding everything that is being targeted towards this line or through efforts to restrict navigation in the Red Sea, and this is important for everyone who believes the Iranian narrative that says that the Houthis or the Popular Mobilization Forces are independent players and nothing more than Allies.

On the other hand, the cessation of US military actions was more painful than their continuation, not only because of the continuation of the US blockade and the subsequent decline in Iranian oil exports to no more than 300,000 barrels exported by land, but also because of US Treasury Secretary Scott Besent, who exerted unprecedented economic pressure as part of the “Economic Pariah” campaign.

This wave of sanctions can be said to have closed many of the pores that Iran was using to circumvent the sanctions, including sanctions on banks and foreign exchange houses, and raising the degree of escalation to punish financial entities in Asian countries that were used to launder Iranian money through a relationship with Iranian exchange companies.

The other matter, which is related to what is happening today, was the imposition of sanctions on countries that allow Iranian civilian aircraft to land, provide them with fuel, or conduct ticket sales for them. The compliance period ended at the end of last September with some temporary exceptions, which reduced Iranian commercial flights by about half so far, and thus added to the tightening of the air and sea noose, which limited the movement of passengers and also the movement of money.

The Houthis, in turn, stopped firing missiles this year in conjunction with the Islamabad Agreement that Iran signed on June 17, and the play of uniting the fronts did not continue, despite the fact that the Palestinian suffering from the Israeli military practices in the Gaza Strip has not stopped yet. As Velayati wrote in April, the unified leadership of the resistance front looks at “Bab al-Mandab” as it looks at “Hormuz,” and in July, Reuters reported that Tehran asked the Houthis to prepare to close the strait.

Here comes the Iranian move, regardless of the faction it was assigned to, connected to the Houthi militia’s targeting of the city of Yanbu in July, then it was disrupted by attacks that came from Iraqi militias on September 10. Also in September, the Houthis moved to control the Bab al-Mandab Strait, and then the recent attacks on King Khalid International Airport came as a continuation of this series.

This escalation carried out by the Houthis, especially targeting the airport, represents a pressure attempt. In fact, it is a losing gamble and a violation of the rules of engagement. It reminds me of Sun Tzu’s saying in the book The Art of War when he said: “Stubbornness and arrogance on the part of a small force will, in the end, make it merely easy prey for a large force.”

As for Iran, the expansion of targeting, especially before the American elections, indicates the exhaustion of its ability to strategic patience, as the stifling of maritime and then air navigation with restrictions on hard currency, and other effects such as the near exhaustion of Iranian floating stock and the exhaustion of raw materials on which local industries depend, makes this escalation a desire to ripen a quick solution with a minimum of concessions, and therefore Russia may have entered the line of mediation recently.

Perhaps speaking about Russia, it is worth noting that when the Soviet Union fell, it possessed one of the largest nuclear arsenals in human history, while the main reason for its downfall was the economy.