Putin moves the confrontation to NATO waters and copies Iran's tactics in Hormuz

Listen to the article. The audio text is automated, generated by an automated system

Fears are increasing that the repercussions of the Russian-Ukrainian war will expand to the sea lanes near NATO countries, after a series of drone attacks targeting commercial ships in the Black Sea, in moves that analysts believe may reflect Moscow copying Iranian tactics used against navigation in the Strait of Hormuz.

The British newspaper "The Telegraph" said, in a report it published, that the recent attacks near the coasts of Romania and Bulgaria represent a worrying trend in Russian operations, amid estimates that they aim to test NATO's cohesion and increase pressure on Western governments to reconsider their support for Ukraine, while avoiding a direct military confrontation with the alliance.

The ship “Royad Mammadov”, owned by a Turkish entity and loaded with Ukrainian corn and headed to Italy, was attacked by two drones on October 5, off the Romanian coast, which led to a fire breaking out on board. The incident resulted in the rescue of 11 people and the recovery of two bodies, one of them the ship’s captain.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky accused Russia of carrying out the attack, which he described as a “horrific strike” that targeted a civilian ship in neutral waters. While Bulgarian Prime Minister Rumen Radev acknowledged the difficulty of proving responsibility, although he indicated that the results of these attacks are in Moscow's interest.

According to the Telegraph, the western part of the Black Sea witnessed at least eight attacks targeting cargo ships within one month. The recent incidents included two ships off Bulgaria, the “Chelsea 3”, which operates for Ukraine, and the “HS Dignity”, of which 11 sailors were declared missing.

Two tankers, the “Yara Gay” and the “Wayne Trader,” were also subjected to attacks that led to the outbreak of fires, while searches continued for seven missing sailors from the second ship.

The Bulgarian authorities announced the opening of an investigation into the possibility of war crimes, including the possibility of issuing orders to kill crew members and cause extensive damage to ships. For his part, Romanian President Nikocor Dan said that the attacks represent “direct results of the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine,” noting that NATO countries will discuss the strikes during a meeting scheduled for next week.

The newspaper quoted Andrew Mumford, professor of war studies at the University of Nottingham, as saying that the strikes appear to be a worrying shift in Russian movements, and fall within what he described as a hybrid threat strategy, which targets Western interests and tests the alliance’s cohesion without crossing a threshold that calls for a direct military response.

Rod Thornton, an expert on Russian defense affairs at King's College London, pointed out that the attacks occurred within the exclusive economic zones of Romania and Bulgaria, and not in their territorial waters, which raises legal complications regarding the possibility of activating Article 5 of the NATO Treaty, on collective defense. He added that the difficulty of determining the source of the attacks provides room for deniability, considering that targeting commercial ships may constitute a way to increase pressure on the two countries without necessarily pushing the alliance into a military confrontation with Russia. Analysts believe that this approach is similar to Iranian tactics in the Strait of Hormuz, where attacks on commercial ships have been used as a tool for economic and political pressure.

The risks are not limited to human losses, as Ukraine depends on the Black Sea to export grains, while the Romanian port of Constanta represents an important center for regional trade. Cesare Giorgi, founder of Agriculum, a consulting firm in the grain sector, told the Associated Press that trade through the port has not been negatively affected so far, but he warned of rising marine insurance premiums as a result of escalating risks.

The Telegraph concludes that the Black Sea may turn into an additional front for pressure in the Russian-Ukrainian war, in light of fears that repeated attacks will expand the scope of the confrontation and test NATO’s ability to protect the interests of its members without sliding into a direct conflict with Moscow.