With Trump ruling out renewed war...what do we know about the developments in the negotiations between America and Iran?

US President Donald Trump has provided the clearest indication yet that intensifying diplomatic efforts may prevent the outbreak of another major round of fighting with Iran, following the disastrous results achieved by his party in the midterm elections. Trump told Ofoq News on Sunday that renewed US military attacks are "extremely unlikely" if Tehran makes progress toward reaching an agreement on its nuclear program and reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

He also told CBS' "60 Minutes" that he was "not seeking" to escalate the war. Iran and the United States are quietly negotiating a sensitive agreement that would prevent a return to all-out war and open the door to broader talks.

But hopes for reaching an agreement are diminishing due to Washington's position, as Foreign Minister Marco Rubio said on Sunday that "it cannot be said that we are on the cusp of achieving a breakthrough." Trump also made clear that the military option is still on the table.

The two parties, nor Qatar, which is acting as a mediator, revealed little about these discussions, despite the acceleration in diplomatic activity since the midterm elections that took place last Tuesday. What has changed since the midterm elections?

The Republican losses in the election added a new dimension to the negotiations, with Vice President J.D. Vance later saying that the war was among the reasons the Republicans lost. Trump told "60 Minutes" that he did not disagree with Vance's assessment, acknowledging that voters "didn't like the war."

But he strongly defended the decision to attack Iran, saying that if he had been asked to make the decision again, his answer would have been "absolutely yes." At the same time, Iran sought to exploit the election results to strengthen its negotiating position.

Its Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, said on Sunday: “The American voters have made their decision. The time has now come for the White House to make its decision.”

Trump continues to express confidence about the American military position, while Iran has repeatedly threatened to expand the scope of the war geographically if it is subjected to another attack. Both parties have several major demands that are considered, in theory, non-negotiable for the other party.

Trump seeks to eliminate the Iranian nuclear program, which Tehran considers a matter of national sovereignty. Publicly, Iran takes a hard line, insisting that it will not negotiate with Washington over its nuclear program, and will not reopen the vital Strait of Hormuz, unless seven preconditions are met, including ending the war on “all fronts” and lifting the naval blockade.

Hundreds of kilograms of enriched uranium - the material needed to produce a nuclear weapon - are still hidden somewhere inside Iran. Tehran has used this stock as a pressure card in its talks with the United States.

Reports indicate that Washington wants to reduce the concentration of this uranium or transfer it to another country to protect it. It is unclear how much progress the parties have made on this issue.

Iran confirmed that its nuclear program is intended for energy generation and not for military purposes. As for Iran, in addition to not compromising its position on its nuclear program or the Strait of Hormuz, it has major economic goals.

As one of the world's largest oil producers, Iran faces increasing difficulties in selling its crude oil in global markets in light of US sanctions. Billions of dollars of Iranian assets deposited in foreign banks also remain frozen.

Washington appears to be considering easing these restrictions, a step that may help Tehran reduce the severe economic pressures its population is experiencing in light of record inflation rates. Iran is also demanding compensation from the United States for the killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and its senior military commanders at the hands of the United States and Israel at the beginning of the war in February.

Qatar mediates between the two parties by circulating a framework document that both Washington and Tehran are working to amend. This operation has been going on for weeks, and perhaps months, but its pace has accelerated in recent days amid fears of new strikes.

Trump is expected to meet with Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani in Washington on Monday. So far, neither party has shown willingness to give up its demands.

Before leaving, on Sunday, for Paris to attend the G7 foreign ministers’ meeting, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio indicated that the two parties are still far from reaching an agreement. “Right now, the talks have not been productive,” Rubio said. “The Iranian demands are not only unacceptable, but in some cases they appear outrageous, ridiculous, and completely unrealistic.”

After successive rounds of direct conflict, Tehran's confidence in Washington almost disappeared, as Iran did not forget that this conflict broke out at a time when nuclear negotiations with the United States were underway. Iran is concerned that giving up any pressure cards it has will encourage the United States and Israel to launch new attacks, leaving it vulnerable without any effective negotiating tools.

If Iran is attacked after it opens the Strait of Hormuz and gives up control of enriched uranium, it will be more vulnerable and in a weaker negotiating position. Trump seeks to achieve a balance in his relations with Arab partners and Israel, who view the Islamic Republic as a threat, and the severe criticism he faces if he withdraws from the war without obtaining major concessions from Iran.

Tehran also seeks to protect its agents and regional allies in Lebanon, Iraq and Yemen. These militias have fought on behalf of the Islamic Republic at the regional level and are loyal to Tehran, but they have been subject to existential pressure over the past three years.

In September, Houthi rebels, Iran's allies in Yemen, launched a lightning attack in which they took control of the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, another strategic sea lane on the Red Sea, giving Tehran potential influence over an additional waterway. Since then, the Houthis have escalated their attacks on Saudi Arabia, in response to the military support provided by Riyadh to the Yemeni government.

The United States seeks to ensure that Iran does not have the capabilities necessary to manufacture a nuclear weapon, including the advanced equipment that might enable it to do so. While Iran's Arab neighbors are divided over any agreement that might give Tehran excessive power and enhance the hegemony it aspires to.

Iran seeks to control the Strait of Hormuz, the sea corridor through which rich Arab countries export most of their oil and gas production, and this control would give Tehran broad influence over what enters and exits the region. This also contradicts the demands of the United States, which wants the waterways to remain open, and will show reluctance to consolidate one of the main gains that Iran has achieved from the war.

There have been some attacks, but both sides have downplayed them, which may indicate a desire by both sides not to obstruct the talks. Some media reported that the talks between the two sides were close to reaching an agreement.

The New York Times indicated that Iran is ready to return to the nuclear negotiating table. There has been no independent confirmation of this news, but any concessions by Iran regarding its nuclear program, or even its willingness to discuss this issue, would constitute a major breakthrough.

However, despite reports of progress, the risk of all-out war remains real. The United States still has a large-scale military presence in the Middle East, which could launch a major attack on Trump's orders.

Ships carrying oil and gas, which pass through the Strait of Hormuz, are also still subject to Iranian attacks. The United States has offered a reward of up to $20 million for information about the Iranian nuclear program, and has also formed a task force aimed at preventing Tehran from using land routes to transport advanced weapons and other materials, which are indications that Washington is intensifying its pressure instead of easing it.

At the same time, hardliners in Iran, who believe that Tehran has already emerged victorious in its confrontation with the United States, are exploiting Trump's losses in the midterm elections to demand that he pay a higher price for withdrawing from the conflict. If the more reform-minded Iranian leaders participating in the talks reach an agreement, they may face internal opposition.

Over the past weeks, Iranian military leaders have escalated their warnings, claiming that Iran possesses weapons capable of hitting more targets and causing greater damage than before. So, even if Trump is willing to reach an agreement, it is not clear whether Iran is willing to accept it.