Abu Dhabi hosts Ukraine talks...a breakthrough after the “blue wave”?

A new round of peace talks between the United States, Ukraine, and Russia began in the Emirati capital, Abu Dhabi, on Tuesday, at a time when the American administration is renewing its efforts to end the conflict that has been going on for nearly 5 years, after it announced major concessions to Moscow. The tripartite negotiations continued for more than four hours, and further rounds are expected to take place on Wednesday morning (local time).

Russia has made clear that it wants these negotiations - the first of their kind since February - to be limited exclusively to the three parties, despite the presence of national security advisors from several European countries, along with officials from NATO and the European Union, in the UAE capital to hold separate meetings. At the beginning of Tuesday's talks, Jared Kushner, US President Donald Trump's son-in-law and one of the American negotiators, said: "We hope today that the discussion will not be limited to bilateral issues between countries, or how to end the war and provide effective humanitarian aid, but rather extend to how to build sound security relations between Ukraine, Russia, and Europe."

However, many - especially in Europe - expressed doubts about Moscow's intentions, as European Union foreign policy chief Kaya Kallas stated on Monday that she saw little indications of Russia's willingness to negotiate in good faith. Meanwhile, Kushner indicated that the decision to provide American security guarantees - as part of the peace talks - remains in the hands of President Trump alone.

The American side is represented in these talks by Jared Kushner, Trump's son-in-law, and special envoy Steve Witkoff. While the Ukrainian delegation is headed by Rustam Umarov, head of the Ukrainian Foreign Intelligence Service.

The official Russian news agency TASS reported that Moscow sent a delegation that included Deputy Foreign Ministers Sergei Ryabkov and Mikhail Galuzin, along with Kremlin aide Vladimir Medinsky, head of military intelligence Igor Kostyukov, and member of the General Staff Yuri Zhigarlovsky. Representatives of the E4 group (the United Kingdom, France, Germany and Italy), as well as NATO and the European Commission, are also in Abu Dhabi, where they met with the Ukrainian and American delegations ahead of Tuesday's talks.

When asked about the presence of European officials in Abu Dhabi, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Monday that Europe has its own channels of communication with Kiev and Washington, stressing at the same time that the talks are “a tripartite negotiation - including Russia and Ukraine - in which the United States plays the role of mediator.” These talks come in light of renewed efforts by European countries to play a more active role in negotiations related to the future of Ukraine and the security of the European bloc, after Trump proposed the idea of ​​reaching a new security agreement for Ukraine that “may include all of Europe.”

The Elysee Palace in Paris said in a statement on Tuesday before the start of the talks: “We are working side by side with the Ukrainians, and our goal is to underscore a fundamental principle: that the pursuit of peace in Ukraine and security in Europe are closely interconnected.” Europe has long expressed its wariness of any peace agreement brokered by the United States without its participation, and in this regard, Umarov stated on Monday that Ukraine is “doing its utmost to ensure Europe’s participation in the diplomatic process.”

Although the main talks will remain trilateral, Witkoff said on Tuesday that he and Kushner held meetings with Ukrainian and European partners to continue “close coordination on efforts to end the war in Ukraine and create conditions for a lasting peace, including support for strong security guarantees as part of any settlement.” “Participants reaffirmed their shared commitment to building a strong post-war European security architecture, and stressed that a strong North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) will remain an essential pillar of collective defense in the Euro-Atlantic space,” Witkopf wrote on the “X” platform.

This will be the fourth round of tripartite talks, after all previous rounds ended without achieving any tangible breakthrough. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said earlier this year that the tripartite talks that took place in Geneva, Switzerland, in February did not achieve Ukraine’s goals, noting that “sensitive political issues, issues of possible settlements, and holding a necessary meeting between the leaders have not yet been adequately discussed.”

Later, the United States postponed a round of trilateral talks scheduled for March due to the war. Putin is still putting forward stringent demands that Kiev had previously rejected, including extending Russian control over the Donbass region in eastern Ukraine, reducing the size of the Ukrainian army, and Kiev abandoning its ambitions to join NATO.

John Herbst, of the Atlantic Council's Eurasia Center and a former US ambassador to Ukraine, believes expectations for the Abu Dhabi talks should be "very low." “These talks are only happening because Putin wants to give Trump a reason to continue distancing himself from Ukraine,” Herbst wrote last week.

As Russia's sweeping invasion of Ukraine enters its fifth year, and battlefield gains remain difficult, Moscow has stepped up its air attacks. Last Monday, at least 55 people were killed when Russia dropped several bombs on a school building that was being used as a shelter and aid center in Zaporozhye, in one of the bloodiest incidents since the outbreak of war.

Analysts point to the continuation of a noticeable pattern in previous years, with Russian drones and missiles targeting energy infrastructure in Ukraine, but this time more violently and earlier than in previous winters. The Ukrainian president said that Russian attacks on the electricity grid caused power outages to more than 600,000 people in the Dnipropetrovsk region on Sunday night, at a time when temperatures are dropping sharply with the approach of winter.

Over the past few months, Russia has brought into service Shahed drones powered by jet engines, which are faster and more difficult to shoot down. At the same time, Russian missiles have become more capable of penetrating Ukrainian air defenses, as Kiev suffers from a chronic shortage of American-made Patriot interceptor missiles, which are among the few defensive weapons capable of shooting down ballistic missiles.

Can the election results change the American position? While the Biden administration has made the United States Ukraine's largest donor and strongest ally, the Trump administration's relationship with Kiev has been much more complex.

The administration halted financial aid to Ukraine in early 2025, and the intelligence and technology support it continues to provide has come under increasing pressure in recent weeks. Last month, Zelensky accused his Western allies of not providing intelligence warnings before multiple ballistic missile attacks occurred, an allegation denied by the Trump administration.

Also in October, Ukraine faced difficulties using Starshield - a military-grade version of Elon Musk's Starlink service, which is critical to its military operations - after restrictions were imposed on connection speeds at satellite stations. Trump denied his approval of that decision, while Elon Musk indicated - in a post on social media - that the Trump administration was behind this restriction.

Behind this latest tension is Trump's sensitivity to rising fuel prices, which have risen sharply due to the war with Iran, contributing to the crushing defeat suffered by Republicans in last week's midterm elections. Trump expressed his willingness to conclude trade deals with Moscow - including a deal to supply Russian diesel to the markets - in a stark departure from the sanctions aimed at punishing and isolating the Russian economy.

He also put pressure on Zelensky to accept a short-term “energy truce.” With Democrats poised to take control of Congress, Zelensky publicly expressed his hope that a “blue wave” (a Democratic victory) would strengthen American support for Ukraine, especially since the party “talks very clearly about supporting and providing assistance to Ukraine.”

However, it remains unclear whether the midterm elections will bring about a fundamental change in US policy towards Kiev. In an interview with “60 Minutes” broadcast on Sunday, Trump refused to say whether he trusted Zelensky or Putin more, and hinted that Ukraine might have to give up part of its territory.

“Ukraine will end up a little different,” Trump said, presenting a scenario that Zelensky had repeatedly rejected.