Are Washington and Iran heading towards a new round of war?

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Summary: In recent days, the indicators coming from Iran, the United States, and Israel are no longer merely a new round of a war of mutual threats. In addition to the escalation of the Iranian military tone, the increasing warnings regarding the Strait of Hormuz, and the increase in the frequency of incidents targeting shipping traffic, other indicators are emerging related to American military preparations, the disruption of communications inside Iran, and the return of talk in Washington about the possibility of launching new strikes, before the American midterm elections and the Israeli elections. Reading these indicators, it is not possible to rule out the possibility of a transition to war. It is also possible to follow up on why this might happen. The coming weeks are more delicate than they seem.

Since Thucydides, the behavior of states and people can be understood through the interaction of three basic motives: fear, interest, and honor (political victory). These motives do not disappear with the change of eras, but rather take new forms depending on the nature of the conflict. The three elements are present in some indicators and movements that the region is currently witnessing, which have previously been repeated according to the pattern of the American-Israeli-Iranian conflict. In October 2025, the American-Israeli war on Iran was preceded by moves that prepare the scene for it. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin spoke. Netanyahu talked about an Iranian missile program, and aimed to redefine the Iranian missile program as a threat to American territory, and not to Israel alone, and the file intersected with what US Secretary of State Marco Rubio put forward about the Iranian missile program, during the previous stages of the confrontation, and US President Donald Trump headed to settle the Gaza file, to neutralize “Hamas” and devote himself to the Iran war that was launched later.

In recent days, the indicators coming from Iran, the United States, and Israel are no longer just a new round of a war of mutual threats. In addition to the escalation of Iranian military rhetoric, the increasing warnings regarding the Strait of Hormuz, and the increase in the frequency of incidents targeting shipping traffic, other indicators are emerging related to American military preparations, disturbances in communications inside Iran, and the return of talk in Washington about the possibility of launching new strikes before the American midterm elections and the Israeli elections. Reading these indicators, the possibility of a transition to war cannot be ruled out, and it is possible to follow up on why the weeks might be. Coming more sensitive than it looks?

Iran is convinced that Washington and Israel are considering waging a limited war, carrying out a strong and decisive strike, and achieving a quick victory, as huge quantities of bombs and weapons were transferred, coinciding with the movement of forces to the region. In contrast to the American military movements, Iranian rhetoric moved from deterrence to military preparedness, and a gradual shift from political threat to a language closer to operational preparedness. The Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces, commander of the “Khatam al-Anbiya” headquarters, confirmed in a message that the outbreak of a new war against Iran would make its fire He insulted everyone, in a message that carried threats to Washington, Israel, and the countries of the region, coinciding with the International Atomic Energy Agency’s warning against making statements that it described as unfounded about the Iranian nuclear facilities.

In the same context, Iranian military messages confirm that Iran, according to its official discourse, has become stronger than ever before, and that it is ready to confront any threat “in any form and at any level.” The importance of this language increases, as it is similar to the statements of Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi, which confirms that Iran is steadfast and determined to defend itself. The Iranian media is also dominated by statements from military and security officials, talking about that the next mistake may lead to greater surprises, and that Iran is in a state of complete readiness.

This language reflects an Iranian perception that a new round of war may break out, and that the resumption of strikes is not a theoretical possibility, so statements are issued to deter and prevent a strike against it, and one of the indicators that is worth monitoring is the disturbance in communications within Tehran. The country has always witnessed widespread disturbances in communications and the Internet, during periods of internal protests and security and military confrontations. Therefore, the emergence of disturbances in communications at this moment should not be treated as a mere technical issue, but rather it may fall within the framework of raising security and military preparations, while the Internet disturbance cannot be considered alone. It is evidence of the imminence of a military attack, but its importance comes from its context. If a widespread and deliberate disturbance in communications occurs, coinciding with an increase in the level of security deployment, restriction of air traffic, tightening of communications control, and unusual military movements, then its interpretation as part of security measures or defensive preparations becomes more likely.

Perhaps the most important development is what American reports revealed in recent hours about the possibility of a joint strike on Iran, but this contradicts what Tehran bet on, which is that the time factor is not in Trump’s interest, as he cannot strike it before the midterm elections. Likewise, the United States has strengthened its military presence in the region, sending about 9,000 soldiers and a third aircraft carrier to the Middle East, as Trump considers new options towards Iran, but it seems that he is dealing with a logic different from what Iran bet on, so the question becomes what is the political goal? What can a new hit achieve? Why might Washington choose its timing now? Then, can war become a tool to reshape the political landscape?

Quoted from "Independent Arabia"