“Dawn of Yemen”...why now?

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Last Monday, the head of the Yemeni Presidential Leadership Council, Rashad Al-Alimi, announced the launch of Operation “Yemen Dawn” with the aim of restoring state institutions, liberating the capital, Sana’a, and ending the coup by the Iranian-backed Houthi group. The announcement came after more than a decade of conflict, and after years of attempts at calm and negotiation that did not succeed in reaching a solution that would end the crisis.

Yemen has witnessed ongoing conflicts for many years, but since 2022 it has lived in a state of fragile calm, and opened the door to negotiation for a political path sponsored by the United Nations, leading to an attempt to draw a road map for a solution. However, that path has faced widespread criticism, not only because of slow progress, but also because of a long experience of initiatives and agreements that were unable to end the crisis or oblige the Houthis to what was agreed upon, and the international community may have had a negative role in that. The Stockholm Agreement in 2018 was one of the most prominent examples, because when the legitimate Yemeni forces were close to retaking the city of Hodeidah, political pressure was applied to end the military track, after which the battle stopped and the legitimate Yemeni forces were prevented from advancing. Unfortunately, it was without a political solution. So what happened after that?

What happened was that the Yemeni formations and forces multiplied, and local ambitions overlapped with the war on the state, which made the battle more complex, especially with the narrow ambitions of some components, making it difficult for the battle to regain Sanaa to advance, while part of the legitimacy’s allies are struggling for influence in Aden, Mukalla, and other regions, as it is not possible for a state to fight the battle to liberate its capital, Sanaa, while the home front is divided between political and military projects. narrow, so unifying and re-arranging the Yemeni ranks was a top priority that preempted any broad confrontation with the Houthi rebel.

After that, the equation changed clearly with the outbreak of the American-Iranian war, and the Houthi announcement of its joining the regional war, lining up with Tehran without regard to the interests of Yemen and its people, so that the war turned from an internal Yemeni affair, to become part of a broad regional project that threatens the region and global security, and before them Yemen, and it became a tool in a conflict that transcends its borders. Then the matter developed for the Houthis to attack Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states despite the fact that they are neither a party to the regional conflict nor Yemen, and after that the Houthi group began to threaten international navigation and water straits, most notably “Bab al-Mandab” after controlling the Mokha and Dhu Bab region.

The meeting of the Yemeni National Defense Council, headed by Rashad Al-Alimi, came to confirm that the Yemeni government had presented many initiatives to end the conflict in an attempt to control itself and open the way to a political solution. However, the Houthi rebels’ continuation of their positions, and the connection of their decision to regional powers, made the negotiation process futile and facing a dead end.

That is why Operation “Yemen Dawn” with the support of the coalition forces came as a result of a long process, and is not a sudden decision. War does not begin when negotiations fail only, but rather when the continuation of the status quo becomes more dangerous than changing it. A state cannot wage a successful war against a militia without a cohesive internal front, just as a militia linked to a regional project cannot build a stable state.

Hence the importance of supporting Yemeni state institutions and unifying the forces fighting under the banner of the Republic of Yemen, while keeping the door of return open for Yemenis who joined the ranks of the Houthis.

Yemen today needs a final solution to the state of chaos that has disrupted its state for more than a decade, and if Operation “Yemen Dawn” is launched now, the real test is not only in restoring the land, but also in restoring the state, and for Yemen not to be an arena for a regional project larger than its capacity or a card in the struggle of others.

Quoted from "Al-Sharq Al-Awsat"