For the first time since the start of the electoral battle, an expected increase in Arab voting may change the balance of the camps in Israel

Tel Aviv - Ofoq News - For the first time since the start of the electoral battle, the Israeli newspaper “Maariv” poll monitored an increase in the voting percentage among the Arab community, coinciding with the decline of the Likud Party by two seats, amid estimates that the voting percentage and the electoral victory percentage may decide the shape of the camps on election day.

Maariv polling analyst Dr. Menachem Lazar said that the poll published at the end of the week showed a noticeable increase in the strength of the two Arab parties by two seats, giving Ofoq News 14 seats. But he pointed out that it is still too early to determine whether this rise is a temporary jump or a trend that will continue during the coming period.

Lazar explained that the strengthening of the strength of the two Arab parties is due to the high voting rate in Arab society, adding: “We said previously that if the Arab parties were unified, the voting rate among Arabs in Israel would rise. After the unity between the Democratic Front for Peace and Equality and the Arab Party for Change on the one hand, and the National Democratic Rally on the other hand, we did not see any movement, but this week we are witnessing for the first time a shift in the Arab community’s willingness to go out and vote.”

Regarding the Likud Party's decline in two seats, Lazar suggested that there were several reasons behind this, explaining that the central reason was most likely due to a negative reaction among the right-wing public to the negative campaign against Ofer Venter, which he said was mainly attributed to Likud.

He added that the debate over responsibility for the events of October 7, along with the defamation lawsuit filed by former Israeli General Security Chief Ronen Bar against Benjamin Netanyahu, may also have influenced, to some extent, the poll results.

Lazar pointed out that Gadi Eisenkot, who had previously reached a peak of 26 seats, lost five seats in about a month and a half, but stabilized in the recent period without succeeding in achieving a new height.

He said that the parties of the Zionist opposition camp agreed to coordinate their electoral messages, but the practical reality does not reflect this, noting the emergence of contradictory messages within the camp during this week regarding how to deal with the possibility of a tie between the camps and relying on the support of the Arab parties.

He stressed that the election results are still subject to change until polling day, especially in light of two parties approaching the electoral threshold in a way that entails great risks, namely the “Reserves-Economic” Party on the one hand, and the “Am Israel” Party on the other hand.

Lazar explained that failure of one of the two parties to pass the electoral threshold may dramatically affect the results, and may lead to a clear tilt in the balance of power in favor of one of the two camps.

He added that the percentage of those who are hesitant to vote is still low, and that the overwhelming majority of those who have not decided on their choices are hesitating between parties within the same camp, with very limited transfers recorded between the two camps.

Lazar believed that the occurrence of a major security event may not necessarily significantly affect the election results, but it may lead to postponement of the election date.

He concluded by saying that the central issue before Election Day was and still is the voter rate, stressing that the camp that succeeds in mobilizing the largest number of its potential supporters to the ballot boxes may be the biggest winner.