International guarantees, national reconciliation, and Palestinian elections

Writer: Hani Al-Masry

In my recent visit to Brussels and London, which took place in late September and early October, and in all the meetings in which I participated, I focused on two challenges facing the Palestinian elections.

The first challenge, which is the most important: the obstacles that the occupation places in front of the elections at their various stages. It has sometimes reached the point of confiscating its results, as happened after the legislative elections in 2006. It is expected, and even inevitable, that the current Israeli government, which is the most extremist and racist, will intend to “resolve the conflict” government, which works to liquidate the Palestinian issue in its various aspects and dimensions, including the institutions of the PLO and the Authority, to go beyond obstruction, that is, to prevent the elections completely. It does not want an elected Palestinian national entity that will gain strength and legitimacy, embody a single national identity, link the West Bank to the Gaza Strip, and keep the path to establishing a Palestinian state open. Bright evidence of this is the continuation of the war of extermination and displacement efforts in Gaza, and the escalation of aggression in the West Bank at various levels and in an unprecedented manner, in addition to what is happening internally.

This challenge also includes the fact that the American administration does not agree to hold elections now, for fear that the election of a legislative council would constitute a threat to the “Peace Council,” as the elected council will become the authority and the holder of legitimacy and jurisdiction over the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, which contradicts Trump’s plan, which makes the “Peace Council” the authority and the holder of the mandate.

It is not true that the current Israeli position, and the obstacles and atmosphere prevailing in the occupied territories, are similar to what has been the case since the occupation, or in the years 1996, 2005, 2006, and 2021. The situation today is much more dangerous and worse.

The second challenge: internal Palestinian. It is represented by the continued division, and the intention of the Palestinian ruling elite not to hold elections that do not guarantee victory. Therefore, it canceled the 2021 elections for fear of a major loss. The elections scheduled for November were postponed due to a sudden development that occurred after the issuance of the election decree, which was the sudden decision of the Hamas movement to participate in the elections directly or indirectly. It was believed that it would be prevented or abstained, in addition to the crystallization of alliances and lists that began to be formed in recent weeks, some of which include Hamas, the Reform Movement and others, and some of which are led by the imprisoned leader Marwan Barghouti, and which may include the movement and other elements and leaders of the Fatah movement, and these are lists that threaten the official leadership with certain loss.

What to do?

Everyone concerned about the Palestinian issue and Palestinian democracy must work and demand that the forces influencing the Palestinian situation put pressure in order to neutralize and contain the internal and external challenges, and provide conditions for free and fair elections whose results are respected. This can be achieved by providing international guarantees that stop Israeli attempts to prevent the elections, and help reach a Palestinian consensus that adopts consensual democracy that suits the exceptional Palestinian circumstance, and ensures the participation of various forces and groups, each according to the percentage it gets in the elections. Thus, the elections are a step towards unity and pluralism, serving the national project, and jointly confronting the existential risks that threaten the Palestinian cause, people, land, institutions, rights and representation.

Therefore, international pressure, and specifically European pressure, if it is truly keen on Palestinian democracy, should not be limited to the Palestinian Authority, but should also include the occupation, to push it to provide the minimum approved international standards for holding free and fair elections whose results are respected.

Without providing international guarantees and national consensus, free elections will not be held, even if a less extremist government is formed after the next Israeli elections that could overlook holding Palestinian elections. It will try to interfere in them in order to ensure its interests and goals and the success of the largest number of supporters of the status quo and the authority’s function as management of the population under occupation.

If there is national consensus, even without international guarantees, it is possible to go to elections in defiance of the occupation, in which case it will bear responsibility for not holding them. In this case, national consensus will be a source of legitimacy until the possibility of holding elections becomes available. As for going to elections without national consensus, in light of the division, and the lack of a comprehensive vision and new alternative strategies to the one that reached the dead end, and dealing with it as if it were a defeat and a broken bone, not participation and a bridge towards unity and pluralism, then with the siege, isolation, dismemberment and separation between the West Bank and Jerusalem and between it and the Gaza Strip, it will be the shortest path to more fragmentation and division, especially in light of the destruction of the authority in Gaza and its undermining in the West Bank.