Brazil between Lula and Bolsonaro... elections under Washington

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On Sunday, Brazilians began voting in a highly polarized presidential election between leftist President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and his conservative rival, Flavio Bolsonaro, in a battle that not only determines the future of Latin America's largest economy, but also tests the extent of the political shift to the right in the region.

While about 159 million voters compete to choose the president, members of Congress, and state governors, the presence of US President Donald Trump looms over the race, after Brazil turned over the past months into one of the most prominent arenas of confrontation between Washington and Lula's government, amid accusations of American interference and an escalating trade and political dispute.

Lula, 80 years old, enters the elections seeking a fourth non-consecutive presidential term, while Flavio Bolsonaro, 45 years old, is running in his first presidential race after his name rose to the forefront of the Brazilian right following the imprisonment of his father, former President Jair Bolsonaro.

Pre-voting polls indicate a limited lead for Lula in the first round, but the difference does not seem sufficient to decide the race in the first round, while polls for the second round show a very close competition between the two men. Recent data from Datafolha and others showed that neither appears close to crossing the 50% mark needed to win in the first round, making a runoff on October 25 the most likely scenario, according to Reuters.

A few years ago, Flavio Bolsonaro was not the candidate who could compete for the presidency of Brazil, but his position changed significantly with the political and judicial fall of his father.

Jair Bolsonaro is serving a 27-year prison sentence on charges of planning a coup attempt after losing the 2022 elections to Lula, while his son is running in the race based on a right-wing electoral base that still maintains its loyalty to the family. Flavio made pardoning his father and restoring his political standing part of his campaign.

Although Trump did not announce official support for Flavio, as reported by Agence France-Presse in the original article, his influence remained strongly present in the race, especially after Washington entered into a confrontation with Lula's government against the backdrop of the trial of Jair Bolsonaro.

It is noteworthy that the Trump administration imposed customs duties and sanctions on Brazil, while Brazilian officials accused the US administration of trying to influence institutions and elections. The Guardian newspaper revealed that American funds were directed to anti-leftist groups and causes, including a million-dollar grant to a campaign targeting the Brazilian Supreme Court, which prompted the Brazilian public prosecutor to request an investigation into suspected foreign interference.

On the other hand, the importance of the elections goes beyond the borders of Brazil itself, as they come at a time when right-wing and conservative forces have made gains in a number of Latin American countries, driven in part by issues of crime, immigration, the economy, and concern about the high cost of living.

That is why Washington is following the race with interest, as Flavio's victory will mean the arrival of an ally closer to Trump to the presidency of the largest country in Latin America, while Lula's survival will mean the continuation of one of the most prominent leftist voices in the region in confronting American policy towards the continent. The Guardian describes the elections as a test for the growing bloc of right-wing governments allied with Trump in Latin America.

But the Brazilian voter does not necessarily vote according to geopolitical calculations alone. Crime, cost of living, government spending, and public debt have become crucial files in determining voting trends.

Lula is relying on economic and social performance that includes a decline in unemployment to historic levels, and on his record in reducing poverty during his two previous terms, in addition to a decline in Amazon deforestation rates compared to the period of Jair Bolsonaro’s rule. In contrast, Flavio focuses on security, reducing public spending, and confronting debt, all of which resonate with sectors of conservative voters.

The environment is no less important than the economy and security in these elections, and whether the right's return or Lula's continuation is seen as an influential issue in Brazil's Amazon policy.

During Lula's current term, deforestation in the Amazon has declined significantly compared to the last years of Bolsonaro's rule, a file that has strengthened Brazil's image abroad as a major player in the fight against climate change. Therefore, the election result may have repercussions that extend beyond the Brazilian interior to climate policies, forest protection, and the country’s relations with major economic powers, according to what was reported by The Guardian newspaper.

Despite the intense polarization, it does not appear that all voters made their choices based on loyalty. The campaign witnessed a state of political exhaustion among sectors of Brazilians, especially with the return of the Bolsonaro family name to the forefront after years of division that followed the 2022 elections.

Detailed programs were also absent in large parts of the campaign in favor of personal attacks and mutual accusations, while corruption scandals and economic concerns remained present in the electoral debate. Pre-poll polls show that the competition remains open, with a limited advantage for Lula and the lack of a strong third candidate capable of breaking the polarization between the two camps.

That is why the Brazilian elections do not appear to be just a confrontation between Lula and Bolsonaro Jr., but rather a test of two competing paths in Latin America: one that seeks to maintain greater independence from Washington, and another that is more willing to rapprochement with the Trump administration.

In both cases, the result will have an impact beyond the presidential palace in Brasilia, to Brazil's position within Latin America, its relationship with Washington and Beijing, and the future of the right and left in the region.