How were Saudi oil exports affected by the conflict with the Houthis?

The scope of the conflict, which has now entered its eighth month, has expanded to include confrontations between the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and Iranian-backed Houthi militants in Yemen. The Houthis targeted Saudi oil tankers crossing the Bab al-Mandab Strait, and in recent days they launched bloody attacks on the main international airport in Riyadh.

Analysts say the crisis has long-term repercussions on the global oil market. At its peak, the Saudi Red Sea port of Yanbu was exporting about 4.5 million barrels of crude oil per day, the bulk of which — about 3 million barrels per day — passed through the Bab al-Mandab Strait, according to Richard Bruns, co-founder of Energy Aspects.

Johannes Raubal, senior crude oil analyst at Kpler, said that if the Houthis begin threatening ships coming from all countries, “this will constitute another blow to the crude oil markets, and will again raise prices, and will further tighten market balances.” But after an attack last month by drones - launched from inside Iraq - targeting the Saudi “East-West” pipeline, which transports crude oil towards the Kingdom’s ports on the Red Sea, Riyadh was quick to change its strategy. It intensified crude oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz, using a sea transportation operation supported by the US military.

US President Donald Trump stated that Iran is most likely behind the September attack, especially since there are Iranian-backed militias active inside Iraqi territory. For its part, the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs "categorically denied" this accusation.

According to several reports, the East-West pipeline is back in operation. Asian countries - the largest buyers of Saudi oil - bore the brunt of the crisis during the war, but they adapted to the situation by reducing consumption.

China has also significantly reduced its imports by resorting to its strategic reserves. The crisis has also prompted some Middle Eastern countries to explore new export routes through pipelines that have not yet been established.

“The longer this conflict goes on, the more leverage Iran has will actually diminish because other countries are able to find alternative paths,” says Kpler's Rupal.