Netanyahu “did not win, but he did not lose either.” What is the solution to the “dilemma” of the Israeli elections?

By Tal Shalev from Ofek News Network - The winner of the Israeli elections has not been decided after all the votes have been counted, according to the Central Elections Commission. Neither of the two main political blocs obtained the 61 seats needed to form a majority government in the 120-seat Knesset, which portends weeks of coalition negotiations or the possibility of new elections.

The Likud Party, led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and his right-wing and ultra-Orthodox allies, won 53 seats. On the other hand, the Yashar Party, led by the main opposition candidate, Gadi Eisenkot, and 3 other Jewish opposition parties within its bloc, won 48 seats, while the Arab parties, consisting of the “Joint List” and the “United Arab List” (Ra’am), won 19 seats, which is an unprecedented number.

With the result not decided, it may continue for weeks, and perhaps months, during which Netanyahu's stay in power remains in limbo. In a political career that spanned more than three decades, Netanyahu was excluded from power countless times, proving in the end that these epithets were written prematurely.

Netanyahu did not win, but he did not lose either, at least not yet. Now, he must prevent his rivals from forming their own government, and he may survive again.

Arab Parties Analysts say the record turnout of Arabs or Palestinians residing in Israel was partly a reaction to four years of rule by the hard-right National Security Minister, who witnessed a sharp rise in crime rates in Arab society, and members of this community blamed it on police negligence. They were also affected by the rise in racism following the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, 2023 and the war on Gaza, and they strongly criticized settler violence, all of which could have motivated them to vote.

The Ra'am Party is an Islamic party that attracts a large number of its supporters from the Bedouins in Israel. Its leader, Mansour Abbas, became the first Arab politician to join an Israeli government following the 2021 elections.

The Joint List, which is expected to be the largest Arab party, includes several smaller parties: the Democratic Front for Peace, the Communist Equality Party, and the National Democratic Rally. On Wednesday, Yair Golan, leader of the left-wing Democratic Party, called on his partners to include Arab parties in the bloc, rejecting what he described as “the racist division practiced by Netanyahu between Jewish and Arab votes.”

However, two of Eisenkot's right-wing allies, Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Lieberman, opposed any government that relied on Arab parties. They have not issued any statement on this issue since the polls closed.

The Joint List announced, on Wednesday, its readiness for political cooperation, and that it is ready "to do everything in its power to end Netanyahu's rule." On Thursday, Eisenkot held two separate meetings with both Golan and Bennett, where they discussed their “shared commitment to implementing the will of the voters without delay,” according to Eisenkot’s party.

A source close to Netanyahu said his main goal after the election is to delegitimize and thus prevent Jewish-Arab political cooperation, which could oust him from power. After a fierce campaign against them throughout the election period, the Likud Party issued a statement on Thursday calling on the General Security Service (Shin Bet) and the police to investigate what it described as “the involvement of foreign elements who interfered and bribed voters on behalf of the Arab parties.”

The statement came after the head of the Central Elections Commission, Deputy President of the Supreme Court, Noam Solberg, sent a letter to the director of the Shin Bet, David Zinni, requesting an investigation into “serious suspicions” related to foreign financing, adding that he could not verify the seriousness of the evidence. But Central Election Commission Director General Dean Livni dismissed allegations of widespread fraud as baseless, saying in a letter to an opposition lawmaker that the vote was “conducted lawfully” and “there is no basis for allegations of systematic violations of election integrity.”

Opposition parties generally support an investigation, but have described the allegations as an attempt by Netanyahu to challenge and undermine the results. The Joint List and the Raam Party rejected these allegations and described them as a “planned smear campaign.”

Meanwhile, Qatar, which ministers named as the “involved foreign power,” described the allegations as “ridiculous and dangerous.” “He is very concerned about forming a minority government,” the source said.

Rather, Netanyahu intends to put pressure on opposition representatives individually not to cooperate with the Arab parties. After a fierce election campaign against it, the Likud Party issued a statement on Wednesday accusing the Arab parties of “stealing the elections” through bribery, threats, violence and fraud, echoing allegations of election fraud made by its closest ally, US President Donald Trump.

The Central Elections Committee said on Wednesday that it was studying the complaint, but the committee had already rejected thousands of complaints from various parties on election day. A source told Ofek News that Netanyahu plans to "neutralize this possibility by all means," including "launching an attack on Iran or enlisting the help of President Trump to interfere in Israeli politics on his behalf."

The opposition fears that Netanyahu will use a security crisis to obstruct or prevent the formation of a new government. Before the elections, Netanyahu pressured Trump to launch a joint attack on Iran, but Washington refrained from doing so. This is partly due to the warning of the IDF Chief of Staff, Eyal Zamir, that such a move could affect the conduct of the voting process.

An Israeli security source said, “The operational plans are ready and awaiting Trump’s approval, perhaps after the midterm elections in the United States.” An opposition source said: “It is impossible to predict what Netanyahu will do. We realize that he may seek to push towards a new escalation.”

Another source added that Netanyahu "will do everything in his power not to leave the Prime Minister's Office, even if it means causing chaos internally and externally." On Tuesday, Eisenkot, a former chief of staff of the Israeli army, called on security leaders in Israel to remember that “Netanyahu is occupying the position of transitional prime minister, without a mandate and without public trust.”

In a speech to his supporters shortly after the results of exit polls were announced, Eisenkot stressed that the public “chose change.” In his first comment on the updated results since his speech on Tuesday evening, Eisenkot renewed his commitment to “bringing change in Israel.”

The next step is the role of President Isaac Herzog, who plays a pivotal role in the post-election period; It is his responsibility to consult with all elected parties regarding the candidate they recommend for prime minister, before choosing the person he deems most capable of securing a parliamentary majority (61 seats). This person does not have to be the leader of the largest party, but rather the one who has the most realistic path to forming a government coalition.

Eisenkot is likely to receive more recommendations than Netanyahu, given expectations that the Arab parties will support him. The selected candidate is given 28 days, with the possibility of extending it for an additional 14 days, to negotiate with other parties regarding ministerial portfolios, budgets and policies, with the aim of forming a government.

If he fails, the assignment will be transferred to another candidate for an additional four weeks. If this candidate also fails, the Knesset is given a short period to present an alternative candidate; If this does not succeed, the country will automatically move toward holding new elections.

Netanyahu, as caretaker prime minister, enjoys an implicit advantage; If Eisenkot gets the assignment first and then fails, all Netanyahu has to do is wait for that period to expire. If Israel finds itself heading towards new elections, Netanyahu will remain prime minister in a caretaker government for months to come.

Eisenkot's Options Eisenkot still has options, albeit limited ones. Even in the absence of the ability to form a government, the opposition can exploit its parliamentary majority to replace the Speaker of the Knesset and hold other key positions; This may limit Netanyahu’s ability to rule, and may even allow the opposition to introduce new legislation.

But Eisenkot, a retired general, finds himself on a battlefield that is not his favourite. Netanyahu's bloc remains very loyal, and he does not have to worry about defections. As for Eisenkot, the situation is different. His diverse coalition lacks ideological cohesion, and any step - no matter how small - could lead to the disintegration of this bloc and return the country to the electoral cycle.

For now, the focus is on Herzog, whose role takes on greater importance in light of the current political stalemate. Since neither camp has a clear majority, Herzog may seek to push for the formation of a national unity government that includes both Netanyahu and Eisenkot.

“We must do everything in our power to avoid another round of elections,” Herzog said on Wednesday, calling on party leaders to come to the consultations with an “open mind.”